An (in)secure world: how does climate change impact security?

I saw a tweet the other day, which led to an article about how climate change induced shrinkage of Lake Chad has worsened the humanitarian crisis in the area.  

Today’s post is about climate change and security. In what ways does climate change interact with security issues? What are the security impacts of a sustained change in otherwise normal weather conditions? 

Climate change has been said to be a threat multiplier. A threat multiplier is something that amplifies or makes a certain threat worse. It makes an already bad situation worse. It can act as a catalyst.

Extreme weather events worsen life conditions because they directly destroy livelihoods, property, and infrastructure. They negatively affect basic human needs. In  Puerto Rico power was knocked out in the entire country by Hurricane Maria. So much loss and destruction was occasioned by the hurricane that Puerto Rico has to build everything from scratch. This will  require a lot of resources which would have otherwise been used in development.

Below's a picture of residents receiving aid after the hurricane.

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Most often than not, the shock of loss of property and basic amenities at such a massive scale coupled with disaffection  with the rate of response by authorities is also likely to be a cause of breakdown in law and order and thus conflict.

Amisom soldiers on a mission 

This happens in the opposite scenario too. Long drawn out droughts as a result of climate change would worsen conflict between different groups that depend on the same resource. How? Basically, rainfall supports life. Water is life. So if there is not enough rainfall, surface and ground water recharge is affected leading to resource scarcity and resultant conflict as everyone tries to get a piece of it.

Here in Kenya, the Ewaso Ng’iro River literally is the lifeline of the North Eastern part of Kenya. This area is populated by pastoralist communities who depend on the seasonal rains for water and pasture for their herds. The river supplies water for most of the year when it is dry. But because of climate change, the amount of rainfall is inadequate and unreliable hence the river is becoming smaller and the volume of water is reduced drastically. This leads to conflict between different communities which rely on the now scarce river water for life. Yes life itself.

This is also the case for shared resources such as water bodies that transverse local and international boundaries. Lake Nyasa straddles Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. Many people depend on the lake for fishing, agriculture and tourism as a source of income. As a result of climate change, long extended droughts leading to shrinkage of the lake would cause conflict between the communities that rely on the lake for a livelihood. The national boundary in the lake between Tanzania and Malawi is also under dispute. This maritime boundary would also be affected by climate change induced shrinkage. Below are pictures of Lake Malawi.

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The River Nile is another example, a shared water resource supporting millions of people in the 11 countries it drains. It arises in Lake Victoria and is also fed by the Blue Nile which arises in Ethiopia. Climate change has been shown to be affecting all these countries and is predicted to affect the variability of the Nile’s output.

The Nile for example powers Egypt’s agriculture and ensures the country’s food security and economy by extension.

Conflict would likely arise because of problems sharing this resource which is increasingly affected by global warming.

Food is the most basic human need. As with oxygen, one cannot live without food. When climate change extreme weather leads to failed harvests over and over again, the food security of a given area or country is affected. Scarcity of food items leading to higher prices and/or inadequate measures to address this will result to discontentment and possible political upheaval.

Let me digress a little. When we talk of climate change negatively affecting the ability of a person to earn a livelihood, we are talking of people’s lives. About human dignity. How a person’s ability to feed his/her family, give the kids a good education, build or buy a home is affected. Basically we are talking about how your ability to lead a good life is negatively impacted.

In North Africa, in countries like Mali, Chad and Niger, global warming has led to the drying out of hitherto arable lands that local communities depended on for farming or grazing as a way to get ahead in life. Because the land is unyielding for lack of rain, this discontentment feeds into the already volatile situation in the region. It adds to already existing conflict and produces ripe ground for the influence of armed groups such as Boko Haram, and the Tuareg Revolt.

It is basic human nature to desire a good life. We all want a good life. As human beings, we are wired to survive, and to fight for survival. As a result, when compared to the hard conditions caused by climate change back at home, many young people in these countries are attracted by the prospects of a good life in Europe and some begin the perilous journey to get there.

Migration results into a clash of different cultures, stress on available resources, social upheaval and hence conflict.

Due to the unpredictable nature of climate change, extreme weather events cannot be fully anticipated. They however cause massive destruction as is the case of flooding and mudslides in Sierra Leone in August 2017 which was caused by torrential rains and made worse by ecosystem destruction. When the resultant displacement occurs, the authorities are usually overwhelmed and unable to cope with the demand to take care of the affected persons.

The conditions under which displaced or affected people live in are most oft than not below par and provide an avenue for people to engage in crime, with vulnerable groups such as women and girls worst affected.

The frustrations occasioned by the sudden massive loss and perceived slow response by responsible authorities to such humanitarian crises made worse by climate change could also result to conflict and political upheaval.

Another way climate change causes or aggravates conflict is as a result of rising sea levels. High temperatures cause sea water to expand and also cause polar ice to melt. This adds to the volume of water in the oceans. Sea level rise is a threat to seaside cities as well as communities that rely on the sea for a livelihood. Island countries such as those in the Pacific are well-nigh in the direct path of such effects.

Extreme weather events such as hurricanes and sea level rise directly result in destruction of property and infrastructure. They cause massive financial loss. They can also destroy military bases directly impacting the ability of a country to defend itself from external threats. Sea level rise also affects international maritime boundaries becoming a source of potential conflict.

Climate change has been said to have contributed to the Syrian conflict and the resultant migration.

As I said earlier, climate change compounds already existing conflict. Or it acts as the spark.

The good news is that it’s not all gloom and doom. There is hope in climate optimism. We can be positive minded about climate change. Early prediction of extreme weather events as well as increased momentum in climate resilient development means that we can not only fight climate change but also benefit from acting.

It is imperative that we put structures in place to be able to identify and manage risks instead of reacting to climate change induced disasters.

It is also of utmost importance to immediately increase our efforts to vastly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.

The ability of a species to survive is highly dependent on its ability to adapt to a changing environment. So I believe we as the human race are highly innovative and will find ways to overcome climate change.

But first of all we must sit down, agree, come to a consensus then move forward together. The first step to solving a problem is to acknowledge it exists.

Young people are the future of this planet both metaphorically and literally speaking. Because of the highly globalized nature of today’s world, we don’t see physical boundaries as limits any more. 

Millenials are easily the most social and highly diverse age group in the world. We are able to break the mold, we see ourselves as citizens of Earth rather than belonging to a particular country.

This ability to think global is what I see as the core of a youth led movement in climate action. We can be the change we need.

But for us to begin, we first need to understand the issue at hand.