What Is A Carbon Budget?

Today’s blog post is about a carbon budget. What’s a carbon budget you ask? Well, it’s roughly based on the idea of an actual budget in a way, something we will get to shortly. For purposes of clarity, let me explain what a global carbon budget is. A global carbon budget is the processes of removal and absorption in the carbon cycle affected by mankind, that is, the quantities of carbon emissions released by human activities into the atmosphere as well as the amounts that are removed and absorbed into the oceans, land and plants. So these are specifically human led processes that emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere such as burning fossils, cutting forests, agriculture.

Then there are those processes that absorb carbon like when it dissolves into the ocean, is absorbed by plants and stored in their trunks and later in the soil. So a global carbon budget measures the emissions released into the air as well as how much of it is subsequently removed /absorbed and stored.  So a global carbon budget is what gets into the air and what goes out. Sort of like the money that gets into your wallet and the notes that wave goodbye. Got that? Yeses let’s move to the next point.

A carbon budget specifically in climate change lingo means the amount of carbon dioxide emissions left until we hit a particular temperature threshold. Now I did mention elsewhere in this blog that there are several other greenhouse gases but because carbon dioxide  is the biggest in terms of quantity as well as taking quite a longer time to leave the atmosphere – that is, in comparison with the rest of the gases, emissions are measured in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents.

A carbon dioxide equivalent means, if I release a kilogram of say Methane gas into the air, how many kilograms of carbon dioxide would have the same effect? Methane is many times more potent in terms of global warming potential but is in lesser quantities and doesn’t have such a long lifespan in the atmosphere. For purposes of standardization, the comparison and calculations is done in terms of 100 years.

As of now, when we calculate the carbon budget, the question being asked is :- how many more years do we have left at the current level of emissions before we hit the point of no return, and dangerous climatic changes becomes the norm? Bear in mind that because of the amount of greenhouse gases already in the air, the planet will continue feeling the effects of climate change, even if we stopped emissions immediately. Though scientists have been making this point for a while, because of the political and economic environment, to be entirely honest, we still haven’t enough of a dent, though efforts are underway.

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According to the Paris climate change agreement 2015, emissions need to peak as quickly as possible then start falling. In fact, in order to save the 21^st century and beyond, we need to hit net zero[1] then net negative emissions in the second half of the century, that is start removing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere either through natural processes such by plants and by negative emission technologies - carbon capture and storage[2]

Now, the Paris climate change agreement overarching principle was …. to keep temperature rise this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and better still within 1.5 degrees. That is the essence of the entire agreement. So there are two limits, and therefore two thresholds – 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees. Accordingly, there are also two carbon budgets corresponding to each of the two.

Scientists tell us that we have already passed the 1 degree rise, meaning we have less than 0.5 degrees to go before we hit the first measure, 1.5 degrees. Emissions continue at the rate of roughly 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. Based on the IPCC [3]’s figures, the Carbon Brief has said that at the current rate and with a 66% chance of staying beneath 1.5 degrees, we will exhaust the carbon budget in 2021 and be left with the second threshold of 2 degrees, after which we have runaway climate change.

Will it be too late? A warming planet - image courtesy of  Youtube

The primary sector responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is energy with about two thirds of the share. In the world as it is, fossil fuels have been the driving force behind industrialization and development which might explain why there is still resistance though unwarranted, to climate action. People will naturally prefer the old trusted and sure way of doing things, what they’ve relied on for centuries; that has powered their economies and given them the comfortable lives they have. They argue that if it isn’t broken then don’t fix it. But it is broken, severely, and we have to fix it. You just have to look outside your window and see it.

Now, here we have a bit of testy waters to navigate so listen up and I’ll tell you something. The climate change we are currently experiencing is largely a result of developed countries such as America and the European Union, with the US having been responsible for the highest amount of emissions for well over a century, only overtaken by China in 2007. But the countries that bear the brunt of the effects of climate change on their populace, their economies, their natural resources, their food security, are mostly in the developing world, mainly in Africa and the Pacific islands. And this is where the issue of climate justice comes in, that the least responsible are the ones who suffer the most.

The second issue is that developing countries argue that they need to develop and to do so, need to continue emitting for a while. That is, they need to be allowed to use their part of the carbon budget and develop, till such a time their economies will be sturdy enough to be able to withstand cutting of emissions. They argue that they shouldn’t have to be saddled with the weight of cutting emissions yet their economies are still developing, they still trying to grow. They too should be allowed to develop.

In essence, the developed world has already used up their carbon budget but because they continue to emit, are using up the rest of the emissions share that should have been allocated to developing countries.

Climate change is a science, but unfortunately, it is also majorly about politics because as I said earlier, the global economy needs energy, and this has foremost been from fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels is the number one source of emissions. Emissions reduction therefore does affect the economy and jobs a bit. And everybody wants to save their country’s economy. Now, renewable energy is a major life saver here, and it has been argued in some quarters and correctly so, that if countries embrace renewable energy such as solar and wind, we will enjoy a plethora of benefits, such as cleaner air and better health, inexhaustible supplies of energy which is also becoming cheaper and affordable, and finally that it is beneficial on the economy. A recent report by International Labor Organization does say that job creation by renewables would more than offset the job losses incurred elsewhere.

A transition into renewable energy would allow Africa for example – which is blessed with tons of sunshine all year round – to develop faster, using this energy to power their economies.  Not a bad idea eh? But then a lot of climate finance is needed to make this a reality. This is also another testy issue, because to a large part, money is usually from developed countries (North) to developing countries (South) and the former have never quite realized their financial pledges in its entirety.

Back to the carbon budget, the idea of carbon budget was floated by scientists pre – Paris, but then the thing is, we have this amount of emissions left. How do we divide them equally and fairly among the countries on the planet? Yet to be regulated.

Now as a young person, I continue to reiterate that this is our planet, both as current and future citizens, and if climate will continue to change and dangerously so, it is our lives on the line. The onus therefore is on us to fight and agitate for what we want, for what is our right. And despite all the negative statistics, the fight is still far from being over. We can still secure this bag.

Because Never Say Die👊.

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[1] The amount of carbon dioxide that is added into the atmosphere and the amount removed is similar eg through plants

[2] Carbon capture and storage is the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and later sequestrating it in the ground, like, injecting it into rock formations.

[3] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established in 1988, responsible for climate science which is in turn used to make agreements, policies etc primarily at the UNFCCC.