Hopes And Expectations For COP 25

The 25^th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or COP 25 in short, will take place in Madrid, Spain from 2^nd to 13^th December under the presidency of Chile. It’s clarion call this year is ‘Time For Action’. This is meant to convey the urgency of and rally people around the most pressing need of our times: to save our planet and ourselves from the very real threat of climate change.

The conference, an annual event, is meant to discuss policy and international law around climate action. It is supposed to be a united and consolidated global effort to counter the biggest threat to our way of life this century: climate change.

Notably, this conference is the last before the Paris Agreement comes into force next year, 2020. 2020 is also the year the United States will officially be able to leave the agreement signed in 2015. The meet will also be the last before signatories of the agreement issue new nationally determined contributions.

This year’s conference comes after COP24 in Poland last year came out with a rule book meant to actualize the Paris Agreement and hopefully usher in a new era of climate progress. Several things stand out about his year’s meet.

One, global emissions are still rising and show no sign of falling. It is agreed that they need to peak soonest possible in order to start falling. If they continue in this manner, we are well on our way to missing the 1.5 degrees threshold set by the Agreement in 2015. Two is that countries' ambitions to act on climate are still in no way equal to the task of combating climate change. We are still short of the target.

Notably, 2020 is the year where new nationally determined contributions will be released by each country. This document shows the intention of national participants to cut down on emissions and act appropriately on climate. One of the requirements of the 2015 pact, the document is meant to be released every five years and is to be ambitious, show progress and work towards global emission reductions at a national level.

The world however continually looks at its progress and looks for ways to ratchet up ambition towards climate action. This ongoing process is known as the Talanoa dialogue and is a way in which we can measure progress towards achieving the targets of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Its goals were to reduce warming this century to 2 and better still 1.5, increase resilience, address adaptation and lower emission without negatively impacting agriculture and food production.

During COP 24, several issues were pushed forward to this year, including climate finance. Climate finance is an important tool in both mitigation and adaptation and especially in the case of developing countries, it helps them grow their economies not only in a sustainable manner, but also to reduce emissions while at it.

These countries are least responsible for climate change but bear the brunt of it. Their economies are also growing and are unable to grapple with mitigation.  They also need help in building resilience and in adaptation. The target set before was that developed countries would raise 100 billion dollars a year before 2020 to be used in climate action for developing countries. However, the reality on the ground is that this hasn’t been fulfilled completely.

This is a problem for developing countries as well as island countries, who are faced by the worst of climate change, some of whose consequences are irreversible. COP 25 will try to exhaustively deal with this issue while ensuring justice and fairness.

In 2018, significant financial contributions were made towards this. For example Germany gave 1.5 billion dollars, which is twice its contribution in 2014, to the Green Climate Fund. This is a financial mechanism under the Paris Agreement which funds climate action. Pledges were also made by several countries such as Norway.

A just transition to a low carbon development pathway is another issue on the table. This is meant to cushion workers especially in the fossil fuel sector against job losses. There needs to be a safe and seamless handover from non-renewables to renewables without negatively affecting communities and economies.

Another thing which was pushed forward to this year is voluntary market mechanisms. These mechanisms basically include the trade of emission reduction units and offsets. In its basic form, a country or entity which has exceeded its climate targets can sell the balance to countries that need it to reach their own targets. There is disagreement however on the accounting practices specifically to avoid double counting.

This needs to be urgently done as guidelines need to be set in order to usher in the aviation offset trade scheme.

There is also need to come up with an instrument to take the place of the Clean Development Mechanism that was under the Kyoto Protocol.

The Climate Action Summit held in September in New York was convened in order to raise climate targets. Though not wholly satisfying, some of the results were a step forward.  Non state actors demonstrated a willingness to act on climate, with over one hundred cities pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The global banking sector committed to work towards the goals of the Paris Pact. Several investors pledged to steer clear of carbon based investment.

This year’s COP will hopefully surpass these intentions and contributions.

Last year, Poland premiered an initiative known as Forests for Climate. This is meant to highlight the important role trees play in carbon removal and storage. Forests are the lungs of the planet, however in a sad state of events, as recently as July 2019, the biggest forest complex, the Amazon, was facing fire and deforestation.  Did you know that under the Congo Forest lies the largest reserves of peat, which need to be protected at all costs?

To contribute towards the role of forests, Pakistan signified intention to plant ten billion trees from now to 2024. The country also pledged to restore degraded land, which is significant coming in the wake of the recently released IPCC report on land and climate. There was also a commitment to protect the forests of Central Africa, which all serves to underline the importance of forests in the fight against climate change as well as supporting the livelihoods of millions.

This year, we wait to see the steps that will be taken in light of the fact that present action is still not enough to address climate change as it is and to avoid 1.5 degrees of warming. The IPCC this year released two reports, one on land and climate and another one on oceans and climate. The two represent a scientific evaluation of the way nature has been severely affected by human caused climate change and the serious effects it has not only on the natural world but also on the global economy, food security, migration and general human way of  life.

Will these two reports be adopted or discussed with the weight they deserve? Several actors have called for this to be so ahead of December’s climate summit.

Loss and damage is another pertinent issue to be looked at during the meet. It is an especially critical issue for small island countries, least developed countries and developing countries whose very existence is in danger from slow onset events. Irreversible effects of climate change exact a heavy toll on these countries which are unable to recover or spring back quick enough. This is one of the reasons why climate finance is so critical.

In early 2019, two tropical cyclones in quick succession hit several Southern African countries causing extensive loss of life and damage to property as well as loss of livelihoods. These countries have yet to fully regain momentum and stride. This brings about the issue of climate justice: those least responsible are the most affected. Africa as a continent faces the worst of climate change. This issue was a part of the Africa Climate Week.

Resilience is another topic to be further explored at the talks. As a goal of Paris 2015, it is pivotal as there is need to build and create capacity to overcome effects of climate change. This goes hand in hand with adaptation. Both were touched on during the Korea Global Adaptation week in April but still need further concrete action including investments.

By far and large, biodiversity loss has been accelerated by climate change. A report that was launched shows that climate change heavily impacts biodiversity. The natural world is critical to the functioning of the world as we know it. Insects pollinate food crops while pests and vector borne diseases are influenced by climatic shifts. Animals like polar bears which live in the Arctic are now faced with habitat loss. This is also something to be potentially discussed at the talks.

The voice of young people is now louder than ever, as they agitate for their future and fight for their very lives. The youth and children constituency as a stakeholder is not just an observer but an active contributor to the climate debate. Young people are not only fighting for their future but their lives in the present.

To drive momentum and change, millions of youth marched around the world during the climate strikes, urging for a radical reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and real climate action as opposed to myopic economic concerns and interests.

Greta Thunberg who addressed the talks last year is also poised to make an appearance this year. It is clear that the time has come for the youth to fight for their birthright : the right to a clean and safe environment, something under grave threat from climate change.

If this means wresting their future from those who hold it hostage, then young people in their numbers are ready to do so. The voice of the young must be heard.

Gender inclusivity is an issue that has gained prominence recently. Women more often than not are affected by climate change as compared to men. This is because they work most with environment and are thus affected adversely by negative changes in climate. Because of land ownership practices, lack of access to education and financial tools as well as backward cultural practices, they don’t have nearly as strong a voice as they should have.

Efforts to recognize this at the global forum will trickle down and influence policy at the local level.

These are some among the things we will be looking at during the two week December climate conference.

Emissions anywhere affects life everywhere. Climate change affects all of us, no place on the planet is untouched.

It is our hope that the conference this year will yield real and tangible results and be a way forward.