The Glasgow Pact

 

The Glasgow Pact was an agreement signed by 197 countries in November of 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland under the leadership of the United Kingdom/Italy. This event took place under the auspices of COP26, the international meeting of parties to the UNFCCC, which takes place each year.

This conference was well awaited and with good reason: it was postponed from 2020 to 2021 and was a crucial one because all nations were to submit fresh climate plans showing increased ambition to cut emissions. These plans, called nationally determined contributions, were initially submitted in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was signed, and are meant to be upgraded every five years.

This particular meet was important because the decade ending 2030 is of grave significance to climate change. We have a slight window within which to act, if at all we are to save this planet from extreme climatic changes, and keep alive and thriving the intentions of the Paris agreement 2015. The global carbon budget is also dwindling.

COP 26 - photo courtesy

So what happened at cop26 towards this? The first and most crucial goal of climate action is to cut emissions, which currently continue rising. In 2015, the first NDCs were deposited which when combined are not enough to keep warming below 1.5 degrees this century. So new or updated ones were issued by each national entity in 2021, which combined still fall far off the mark. In fact when all of them are put together, we are headed for 2.7 degrees warming this century.

To rectify this, it was agreed that all nations should deposit new and vastly more strengthened NDCs in 2022 at COP27 showing increased ambition to cut climate warming emissions. This instead of 2025. The USA and Australia however opted out of this. UN Climate Change will now issue a comprehensive synthesis report on NDCs on a yearly basis.

For the first time in history, there is an official agreement by the UNFCCC recognizing fossil fuels as the cause of climate change. Another first is the admission on coal stating that there should be a ‘phase down of unabated coal use’ and the phasing out of ‘inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.’ The agreed on wording was to ‘phase out coal’ but India and China interfered with it at the tail end.

Long term emission cuts are meant to put the world on the path to net zero by 2050. For this to happen, ghg emissions have to be halved, and C02 cut by 45% by 2030. However, the trajectory by the collective NDCs falls below this goal. There is therefore a need to align emission cuts this decade with the aim of achieving carbon neutrality by half century and keeping 1.5 possible. There was a call to parties to do this. The UNFCCC will also have a synthesis report on the same.

The pact finally agreed on the Paris rulebook, which is the actualization of the agreement of 2015. The rules for the operation of carbon markets were laid out. Carbon markets involve buying and selling of emission reductions in order to fulfill a country’s mitigation goals. Contested issues were carrying over of credits under the Kyoto protocol (was allowed), avoiding double counting and ensuring that we do not undercut individual mitigation strategies by taking advantage of these markets.

Rules for transparency and accountability were also hashed out. Transparency aims at having countries report on the progress of cutting emissions and financial procedures in reality. Everyone is subject to the same format for doing this. The public and interested parties are able to see that everyone, especially big emitters are truly cutting their sizeable emissions, and no one leaves their work to someone else.

Common timeframes for NDCs was agreed on. This is new/updated NDCs every five years covering a period of 10 years.

In terms of finance, it was a disappointment because the 100 billion USD goal each year set towards climate finance in developing countries has never materialized. Developed countries once again pledged to make good this promise by 2023. From 2025 onwards, this amount will be increased and deliberations are to be held on a new finance goal. Understandably, a group of developing countries asked that finance should in terms of concessions (grants) and not loans especially in light of the last two years. Climate finance helps developing countries (least responsible for climate warming) to grow their economies in a ‘green’ manner and adapt to adverse effects of climate change.

Adaptation was another major point. It was agreed that more finance (double the amount) should be channeled towards adaptation efforts. Currently, only 25% goes to this. The Adaptation Fund and Least Developed Countries Fund received quite substantial pledges. We live in already warming world and this will continue in the near future, so we need to learn to adapt. More collaboration on capacity building, knowledge and resources is needed. Work is set to start on defining a new global goal on adaptation.

The pact encouraged and emphasized in detail the protection and restoration of natural ecosystems and their role in adapting to and mitigating climate change. It emphasized their important contribution to life, culture and alleviation of the effects of climate change. This was an acknowledgement of nature based solutions to climate change.

Loss and damage was also mentioned. It refers to the irreversible loss of property and life to climatic changes. The Santiago Network (2019/COP25) was strengthened. It connects those who need technical expertise, resources and knowledge on loss and damage to those who provide them. However, the more important goal of providing finance for the victims of loss and damage was not actualized. This would-have-been Glasgow Loss and Damage Facility has long been agitated for by climate-hit countries but was opposed by the USA and EU. However dialogue towards funds for averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage will be initiated.

The world was collectively reminded on the need to cut methane. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas having a global warming potential of 20. It is a short lived climate pollutant potent in the near term, accounting for a third of global warming. To complement this, another deal was made on the sidelines. This is the Global Pledge on Methane that aims to cut emissions of CH4 by 30% in 2030 in comparison to 2010. It was signed by 103 countries.

Forests were also a key point. It was emphasized that we need to commit to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. Forests are the lungs of the planet and are being lost at alarming rates. On the side, a deal was signed by 137 countries having 91% of global forest acreage. 17.2 billion USD in public and private finance was set aside towards this goal. 30 financial facilities with a huge reach committed to stop being part of anything that contributes to deforestation.

The rise and rise of electric vehicles came to the fore during COP26. When deriving energy from renewables, electric vehicles can very well be the cure for the road transport industry which contributes 10% of greenhouse gas emissions. More than 30 countries and major car makers as well as cities committed to ensure that all new and van sales by 2040 should be zero emission vehicles. This will happen earlier, in 2035, in prominent markets.

The USA, France, UK, Germany and the European Union came together to sign a deal to collaborate in helping South Africa to free itself from coal dependence in electricity generation. South Africa is the most carbon heavy power producer in the world.

Financial firms controlling about USD 130 trillion in terms of assets also agreed to come together to set science based targets on reduction of emissions and with the intention to line up with net zero ambitions.

China and the USA, the two biggest national greenhouse gas emitters together agreed to cut emissions. If actualized in reality, a big portion of global mitigation goals would be met, as these economies are heavily reliant on fossil fuels and contribute significantly to climate change.

The other point was to encourage the growth of renewable energy. India, the third largest emitter intends to derive half its energy from renewables by 2030 and reach net zero by 2070. The IPCC report 2022 notes that the cost of renewables inclusive of storage is down by 85% compared to 2010, sometimes cheaper than coal.

There was also deliberations into start of the global stock take, whereby the world audits itself to check on the progress to achieving the goals of Paris 2015, and where we are headed to and what to be done about it.

The Glasgow pact noted that the role of indigenous peoples and local communities is crucial in climate action, and they should justly be a part of these efforts and recognized climate justice too.

It also noted that young people and children need have a voice. The rise of climate activism in recent years by young people especially in the global south is to be lauded, given that the youth are one of the most important stakeholders, because both their present and future is at stake. Article 3 of the 1992 agreement on the UNFCCC outlines this.

The proper inclusion of gender concerns and especially women empowerment was also encouraged, as well as the strong roles of non-state actors, civil society, regional governments, cities etc.

The Glasgow Pact was a good step, but it needs real, actual and accelerated action in order to remain alive. It remains to be seen if these ambitious pledges will be reinforced at COP27 in Egypt and met practically.