COP 27 - The Outcomes

 The 27^th conference of parties - the annual international climate summit - was concluded in Egypt on the 18^th of November 2022. These talks culminated in the Sharm-el-Sheikh Implementation Plan, which is the official outcome of the COP. Quite a number of decisions concerning different areas of climate change were taken at the meet, given that each day at the COP had a theme.

Let’s look at what happened.

The cover decision starts by upholding all decisions arrived at during previous conferences and further reaffirms the guiding principles of the convention and all climate change agreements under it, inclusive of the Paris Agreement and Kyoto Protocol.

It affirms that all have the right to a clean healthy and sustainable environment, the right to health, the right to development and also mentions climate justice.

To begin, mitigation received quite some attention. The document recognized that we need “rapid, deep and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.” There was also the mitigation work program meant to be in effect until 2026. This program is to drive action to cut emissions across all sectors this decade. It will make recommendations to the COP on an annual basis. This refers to pre-2030 targets, of which the decade up to 2030 is very crucial in climate action. The IPCC notes that we need to cut emissions by half in this decade in order to reach net zero (climate neutrality) by 2050 and keep within 1.5 degrees.

The Glasgow Pact of 2021 was premised on keeping the 1.5 degrees cap alive. This goal is the first temperature threshold of the Paris agreement meant to protect the world from extremely harsh climate impacts. Towards this, in 2021, all countries were asked to revisit and strengthen their mitigation targets (especially up to 2030) in the national climate plans (NDCs) by 2022. Known as ratcheting up, ambition to cut emissions is usually raised in five year cycles, when new NDCs are deposited by parties. However this was to happen in 2022 because the total of NDCs deposited in 2021 were weak and would actually cause a temperature rise beyond 1.5 degrees.

But only 34 of 194 parties (though some are quite significant emitters) increased their mitigation ambition by the time the conference started. There was also need for long term strategies; which are targeted at net-zero emissions by 2050; to be strengthened by each national party. Of this, 11 new ones were submitted at the meet all totaling up to 54.

In general, more is needed in terms of cutting emissions, given that at the conclusion of 2022, greenhouse gas levels were the highest ever recorded.

By far the most significant news from the COP was the formation of a loss and damage fund. This long sought after breakthrough finally happened much to the delight of developing countries. Following this, negotiations now need to begin on sources of funding, amounts and methods of operation, disbursement and all other technicalities. Additionally, the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage was strengthened with work set to commence on making it operational. This refers to decisions on the secretariat, host, participants and all else necessary to make it a reality. This network is meant to provide technical assistance on loss and damage events and is under the convention.

Photo by dagnogoinza via iwaria

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 On loss and damage, some 12 countries made further financial commitments. The UK said that it wouldn’t require servicing of debts for 2 years after a loss and damage event in an affected country.

Climate finance is always a hot topic at COPs, and this was not that different. First, negotiators failed to settle on a common definition of what climate finance is. Secondly, the USD 100 billion per year goal set to be from developed to developing countries has never been achieved, and countries continued to ask that it be honoured. Also, developing countries asked that the shortfall from previous years be filled up. Elsewhere, at COP26, countries had decided to agree on a new finance goal by 2025. However, the negotiations toward this were not successful at COP27 though technical discussions on the processes and execution of it took place.

The cover decision noted calls for international finance towards climate action to be revised and restructured, noting that resources rarely reach the intended recipients. The Bridgetown agenda fronted by Barbados and supported by both the Global South and North, asked that multilateral banks be reformulated with the aim of making them deliver and be more helpful. Developing countries drew rightful attention to the dense and complex processes of accessing climate finance and called for more transparency, accountability and to just make it simple to access. Also, there were calls that finance be concessional and not loans, since this further adds to the debt burden of developing countries. The cover decision also asked for developed countries to act towards the second replenishment cycle of the Green Climate Fund, and plug previous shortfalls.

Adaptation got its day at COP27. Adaptation, alongside mitigation and loss and damage, is a pillar of climate action. However, adaptation gets only a quarter of climate finance and calls continue to double this to half (50%) of all flows. To be precise, adaptation finance should be doubled by 2025 in comparison to 2019 levels (agreed at COP26). This however did not make it to the official COP document as discussions on how to go about it were not conclusive. It was agreed that adaptation needs more in terms of capacity building and technology transfer in order to better cope with the effects of climate change. Notably there is still a big gap in what exists currently versus what needs to be done. There is need to “enhance adaptive capacity.” Nonetheless, the Adaptation Fund got pledges worth 230 million dollars. The Special Climate Change Fund and Least Developed Countries Fund “welcomed” new pledges but asked for more financial resources.

The Global Goal on Adaptation is to be finally unveiled at COP28. However, discussions on a common phrasing of the goal once again failed but instead a mechanism to agree on a common definition was set up. There was also the formation of the Sharm-el-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda which is set to work all this decade up to 2030. Its membership includes both state and non-state actors.

The language agreed on concerning fossil fuels at COP26 was not upgraded. This was a “phasedown of unabated coal and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” though India with support tried but failed to introduce “a phasedown of all fossil fuels.” This particular bit of news did not make everyone happy. We simply need more action to cut fossil fuel use.

Energy was also a topic that attracted attention, and the cover decision mentions the need to “accelerate clean energy” and “low emissions energy”. The latter is a bit ambiguous, a catch all, but the document calls for a larger percentage of clean energy mix in the world. Energy is an area that needs “rapid deep and sustained cuts in emissions.” The Just Energy Transition Partnerships, an initiative meant to help a country cut reliance on fossil fuels in power generation and in the economy in general, was also encouraged. JETPs ensure the safety of jobs, continuity of livelihoods and social wellbeing.

The document notes the events of early 2022 causing global shocks in energy and food prices which in turn affect climate change and vice versa. This calls for more resilience and security of energy systems.

The cover decision speaks of the need to input 4 trillion dollars a year for renewable energy going up to 2030, in order to reach net zero emissions at 2050. 4 to 6 trillion dollars is needed to turn towards a low carbon development pathway. It also noted the “gap” between the needs of developing countries to implement their NDCs and the “financial support provided.”

The COP decision also recognizes the sound science of climate change and makes mention of the IPCC Working Group II and III reports released in 2022, as well as the adaptation gap and emission gap reports by UN Environment, and state of global and regional climate reports by World Meteorological Organization.

Also recognized are early warning systems which can be crucial to protecting livelihoods and saving lives, by relaying early signs of changing weather and heavy impacts. In fact a third of the world is not covered by these systems including 60% of Africa. However, the UN unveiled its own 3.1 billion dollar plan to protect everyone on the planet. Systematic observation of climate and weather will help in mitigation, adaptation and especially in attribution science which aims to connect extreme weather with climate change using viable data.

The COP came into agreement that methane, a strong short lived climate pollutant and a powerful greenhouse gas in the near term needs action. This means cutting emissions of methane, something of which 150 countries have joined the Global Methane Pledge to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. China is set to be a member soon.

The Global Stocktake is set to conclude next year at COP28 where a report will be presented at the political level. This process aims to review where the world is in terms of climate progress and what needs to be done. Already two technical dialogues have already taken place and the third and last will be done in 2023. The results will be included in a COP decision or as an announcement with commendations. Its outcome and that of the mitigation work program will set the new floor for new individual climate plans (NDCs).

The technology mechanism also got a mention. Technology transfer is an important part of climate action, is a part of the IPCC reports, and is recognized by both the convention and Paris agreement. This area is covered by the Technology Executive Committee covering policy and the Climate Technology Centre Network covering implementation. The report findings under these two will be considered under the global stocktake. Carbon capture and storage, an “engineered” way of capturing carbon emissions is a part of this.

Nature based solutions (ecosystem based adaptation) also got a mention though with necessary environmental and social safeguards as a caution.

The document recognized the importance of water in adaptation and urges the “protection and conservation” of all water sources including basins and aquifers, while still practicing sound environmental safety principles and social equity.

The importance of oceans in the climate fight was noted, and countries can consider oceans in their NDCs and in attaining “climate goals at the national level.”

Slowing, halting and reversing forest loss and “preventing carbon loss” was a part of the COP decision whereby the Forest and Climate Leaders Partnerships gained additional 28 members. DRC Congo, Brazil and Indonesia where a very significant part of the world’s tropical forests are, formed a partnership.

All natural ecosystems, terrestrial and marine, need to have their integrity maintained.

The COP recognized and urged that gender parity and responsiveness, and women empowerment be a part of individual and collective efforts to fight climate change at all levels.

The rights of indigenous groups, local communities, migrants, persons with disabilities were all recognized and parties are urged to uphold this in climate action.

Climate efforts should ensure a just transition and should be inclusive “minimizing negative social and environmental impacts.”

There was mention of protection of the cryosphere (frozen parts of the Earth) and a need to ensure we don’t reach tipping points. Climate tipping points are sort of breaking points where drastic change takes place.

The document made note of the contributions of youth and children to climate efforts, in light of the convention’s principle of “protecting the climate system for future generations.” The young had their own pavilion, and the COP had a youth envoy, while outcomes of the 17^th conference of youth were noted. Parties are also urged to include youth and children as part of their delegations to climate meets and involve youth in decisions.

Article 6, which concerns carbon markets was still not fully operationalized after the hashing out of some technical rules was pushed to COP28.

The UNSG High Level Group on Net Zero Emissions Commitment of Non-State Entities released a report which encourages emissions reduction as a standalone objective that cannot be substituted by carbon offsets. Though these high value carbon offsets can be used elsewhere.

Agriculture needs to be protected in order to ensure food security and end hunger, while increasing adaptation and resilience in this sector. In fact the Sharm-el-Sheikh Joint Work on agriculture and food security was launched at the meet. It is to run for 4 years. A complimentary online portal was launched.

To conclude the COP, there was good news on the African front with three initiatives launched. The first is the continent-wide Africa Carbon Markets Initiative. The second is the African Cities Water Adaptation Fund meant to finance all adaptation efforts concerning water and cities (sources, management, resilience, sanitation etc.). The AFR100 consisting of 32 African countries was further boosted by new sources of finance. The purpose of this is to reverse land degradation, targeting about 120 million ha continentally.

COP27 will now hand the baton to COP28 which will be held in Dubai presided by the United Arab Emirates under Dr. Sultan Al Jaber..