Conflict, Water And Climate Change

Water is essential for life. To start with, every person on the planet (about 8 billion of us) need drinking water to survive. Climate change, population growth and economic development are increasingly putting pressure on freshwater supply from which drinking water is obtained. Supplies are finite and climate change is changing the availability, access and quality of drinking water.

Normally, a large portion of human society relies on rainfall which recharges lakes and rivers (surface water) and aquifers (groundwater), as well as glaciers and snow which provide water in hot months. Climate change has altered the entire water cycle. Higher temperatures mean more water is removed from the earth’s surface through evapotranspiration. A warmer atmosphere absorbs more water vapour while more moisture in the air increases its ability to hold heat and on and on it goes. When this vapour cools it distills as heavy and sudden rain.

Lack of enough drinking water caused by droughts, heatwaves and insufficient rainfall will very easily increase competition for the little water there is. This will become conflict as disputes over inequitable sharing of water arise – everyone needs some water. This conflict is replicated between people and wildlife as both seek water in order to live.

Photo by Emmanuel via Iwaria

Water supports both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Agriculture is what feeds the world and is also an independent economic sector worth billions and employing millions. Climate change-caused droughts and erratic weather patterns already threaten water availability, impacting crop growth and lowering yields. This translates to shooting up of food prices and consequent unrest as the less privileged are unable to comfortably afford a healthy and balanced diet. Hungry people will be involved in conflict.

Also, large withdrawals of water from natural resources in order to support irrigated agriculture will very likely cause conflict especially in times of dry weather exacerbated by climate change. A sticking point will be around fair sharing of water with other users of the resource and especially those downstream.

Competition for water between different groups can also trigger conflict. An example is between farmers and pastoralists who both depend on a river to sustain their different ways of earning a livelihood. Clashes between them will occur when the river volumes lessen due to over extraction, insufficient rainfall and drought. Not only so, but conflict occurs when herders invade croplands and ranches in search of pasture, in times of drought when pasture is scarce.

Competition between economic sectors can also lead to conflict. Agriculture and energy both need water to function. Practically all energy types require water to generate with the exception of solar and wind which need little water. In times of drought, reduced amounts of water will require rationing of water and prioritization of energy over other needs which can anger other water users like farmers. This can cause demonstrations and unrest in many cases.

Another aspect of water and conflict is transboundary resources. These are water features that straddle borders. Water, like all other natural resources, does not care much about human-drawn political boundaries. The catchment areas, watersheds and basins traverse long kilometres of the natural world and can span several countries or states. Major rivers are fed by tributaries joining them at varied and different points and these rivers empty into lakes or the ocean. Lakes can give rise to other rivers (outlets) and in totality, thousands or millions of square kilometres can be covered.

Now, in terms of economic development, one of the several countries sharing maybe a river can decide to dam it in order to produce hydroelectricity (the cost is cheaper) or for irrigation purposes. This affects the volumes of water flowing downstream to other countries/states and all human communities and ecosystems that rely on this river downstream. An example is the River Niger shared by 5 countries or the Nile shared by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, or the Euphrates and Tigris shared by different Arabian countries. Such situations can get very testy and cause tension between neighbours because their citizenry won’t have enough water for consumption or industrial activity, and the economy suffers from lack of water as well. This can easily spark conflict especially when climate change causes either floods or droughts altering natural flows. This truth carries impactful consequences especially for desert countries which rely on a river e.g. Egypt with the Nile, the countries sharing Lake Chad or those sharing Lake Malawi.

Floods occur from intense rain upstream which rapidly increases the amount of water in a river or lake and which also need to be regulated. This means dams upstream are opened to release excess water which can end up flooding homes, farms, schools and vast areas downstream causing mass havoc and destruction. Notably, environmental destruction of natural buffers like forests or other wetlands can increase runoff downstream. Forests absorb and soak up excess water lessening the impact of floods.

Management of transboundary resources requires intense and thorough cooperation involving everyone from the source to the end of a resource. Very importantly, “source communities” need to be sensitized on the importance of protecting freshwater ecosystems like forested mountains, for the benefit everyone. Technical expertise including extensive mapping out of resources, inclusion of traditional and scientific knowledge systems, research institutes, legal instruments and most especially political goodwill will help conserve a resource equitably.

Another point in climate change, water and conflict touches on security. In times of severe drought or floods which can overwhelm government capacity to respond, citizenry often feel abandoned and are ripe ground for recruitment by militias or terror groups. These groups exploit such opportunities to seize areas and exert control. To be correct, in such cases, there are other factors that foster resentment against governments like historical grievances and elevated poverty levels. Climate change adds to it.

Also, such non-state entities can seize water sources and dictate who has access to it as a means of controlling power and forcing obedience from the community.

In wartime, water infrastructure such as dams, drainage or water conveyance systems can be destroyed in offense or retaliation. In fact, in such times, it is the environment that suffers the most as wells and soil can be poisoned or forests set on fire. Yet all are crucial for climate mitigation.

Sea level rise will cause mass migration as a matter of fact. The ocean is expected to continue expanding due to high temperatures causing thermal expansion of water and polar ice melt. Coastal cities and islands in which a huge portion of mankind lives will be submerged by rising waters. This will cause mass migration inland and given the Earth is already populated, there will be conflict in various ways. First, space for situating camps for refugees, internally displaced persons and stateless people will require land. Next, such numbers of people will strain already existing water infrastructure – demand for water will outstrip supply by far. Also, there will be conflict and social upheaval as different cultures and ways of life clash. Additionally resources will be needed for food and housing structures.

Also, political dynamics will come into play as to the issue of absorbing stateless peoples from islands which cease to exist. All this can cause conflict.

On a positive note, it would be an opportunity for people to learn to live in harmony and see each other as human beings first. Also an exchange of cultures could be beneficial – people can learn positive aspects from one another. Again, it could uplift the economy of the surrounding areas and promote income generation as markets are set up for buying and selling of commodities. Finally, valuable lessons on water conservation and management can be learnt practically.

Migration can also be triggered by droughts, floods, wildfires and cyclones. And in such camps there are cases of sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) faced especially by women, girls and children.

Another example of climate change and conflict involving water is when droughts, wildfires and sea level rise make previously arable land impossible to farm. In such cases, governments buy vast tracts of land in other countries in order to ensure the food security of their populations. The problem with this is it causes conflict within the host countries whose land is sold. Locals in such places contend that the land is theirs and they need it too. Their land rights are not respected. Incidentally, most of where this happens is in Africa, where land is becoming increasingly very valuable and needed to support the ecosystems, settlement, development and agricultural needs of African people.

In some water scarce countries, water sources have become so vital and interwoven with politics that they are guarded by the military and other law enforcement. They are a tool for control.

In other ways, security installations are under threat from rising waters in coastal areas.

Studies done on water and climate change point to demand surpassing water supply as the years go by. With climate change, increasing population growth and economic development, the need for freshwater will spike at a high rate which will not be commensurate with natural replenishment. It is therefore crucial to learn about water governance.

Integrated water resource management which involves looking at water holistically and in all its aspects is a veritable approach to help solve conflict.

Proper management of water at all levels, from domestic to industrial use will be required. For this to happen, it is very very important to teach people about water and climate in general.

Water conservation in terms of reducing wastage, recycling and reusing can go a long way to plug the supply gap and reduce reliance on freshwater supply from natural sources.

To start with, environmental conservation starting with the importance of peatlands, massive reforestation and reduction in deforestation should be taught from kindergarten level upwards and also in community meetings, social and mainstream media.

Training and equipping a capable and water-wise workforce and manpower in the water chain management is also vital. Workers must know the importance of water and proper management.

Wastewater is an often underestimated industry that has huge potential in water and climate savings. Purified and treated wastewater can be re-channeled back to the water system and even used to recharge aquifers. Capture of methane and reductions in carbon emissions can improve climate.

Early warning systems which help people prepare in advance for climate events can improve adaptation and resilience measures. With climate change, every impact has to do with water – too little or too much, too early or too late. To be forewarned is to be forearmed, so goes the saying.

Regulation and policy is another important issue. Water governance needs to be enshrined in practically every law. Water laws need to be very well thought out, extensively researched, involve widespread public participation and forward looking. They should ensure fairness and equity, with environmental justice and the wellbeing of people at the core, that is, in harmony with nature.

Given the nature of water, international cooperation is an important part of water governance. Shared resources require goodwill and equity. Legal instruments such as treaties can be used to forestall and resolve conflict in advance.

Water diplomacy - instead of armed conflict – is a peaceful tool to enable us live in a water-wise world. Diplomats and senior government officials therefore need training on water. Inclusion of women is advisable because they are directly affected, understand communities and are better negotiators.

Given that 9 out of 10 of disasters involving nature have to do with water, and that climate change considerably alters the hydrological cycle, it is only possible to make progress by addressing water, climate change, security and all other dependent sectors in harmony i.e. solutions need to involve everyone and should not pertain to an individual sector only.

Freshwater ecosystems – glaciers and mountains, peatlands, forests, mangroves and all other wetlands are the guardians of water. They filter air and water, hold the soil together and provide a host of environmental and economic benefits.

We must therefore protect them to avert and minimize conflict.

Of course the most important thing is to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Reduced levels of greenhouse gases mean reduced warming and therefore less of severe droughts, cyclones, floods and the rest.

This translates to a more peaceful world and satiated planet.