All About COP28

 The 28^th conference of parties to the UNFCCC will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from November 30^th to December 12^th. The COP presidency has outlined four thematic areas which are transitioning to clean energy; centering nature, people, lives and livelihoods; delivering on finance and mobilizing inclusivity.

This yearly international meeting deliberates on climate policy globally and sets the pace for action. It involves practically everyone – governments (parties to the UNFCCC), business and corporations, civil society, media, financial institutions, youth, women, indigenous peoples, regional governments and UN agencies.

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The most important issues in focus this year will first of all be the global stocktake (GST). This is a process enshrined in the Paris agreement which seeks to assess climate progress in view of attaining the goals of the 2015 agreement. What have we done, where are we and what needs to be done? It is to be done every 5 years with the first one being in 2023. The process however started in 2021 and the findings of the report will be presented this year for discussion at the COP though the report has already been released.

The GST involves intense gathering of climate data and information globally, then distilling, assessing and compiling it into a report that basically tells us the state of climate action now vis-a-vis what was envisioned in the Paris agreement.

The first finding is that we are off track from the temperature target of keeping below 1.5 and 2 degrees. In fact from all climate action now, by century end Earth will be 2.4-2.6 degrees above 1850-1900 (preindustrial times). The world is collectively doing something but it’s clearly not enough to stop the worst effects of human-caused climate change. The IPCC indicated that emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030 below 2019 levels in order to keep below 1.5.

The GST will now set the new baselines for nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and is the basis for the ratcheting up (increasing) of ambition. NDCs are climate plans which are individual national intentions to cut emissions and mitigate climate change. They need to be ambitious and match the level of emissions each country contributes to global climate change.

They are the tool created by the Paris agreement to cut emissions.

Debating these findings and eventual acceptance of this report is a political decision but which will determine whether we keep within 1.5 or not. COP26 and COP27 tried very hard to ensure this.

 The GST also recommends that climate finance be rechanneled to developing countries to the tune of trillions of dollars - to cover mitigation, adaptation, building resilience and low carbon economic growth.

It also recommends the complete phase out of unabated fossil fuels, increasing the energy share of renewables, addressing emissions from hard-to-abate/carbon-heavy sectors (chemicals, steel and cement) and cutting emissions from methane which has a high global warming potential.

The second issue is loss and damage. L&D refers to irretrievable and irrecoverable losses and damages from climate change events. It includes loss of property, farms or infrastructure washed away, livestock dying, spiritual or cultural place submerged by rising sea water, health affected by heatwaves or waterborne diseases etc. This is from sudden events (heavy rains, storms, floods) or slow onset events (droughts).

COP 27 resulted in a breakthrough agreement on a loss and damage fund but which needs to be fleshed out in COP28. Yet to be agreed upon are exact contributors/source of the funds which are developed nations and the extent to which, the structure of the fund, the beneficiaries and the criteria for eligibility. Generally, it’s to be funded by developed countries who bear historic and current responsibility for climate change, and is meant for developing nations, who experience the worst effects thereof.

But technicalities such as in deciding on the definition of a developing country - one that captures accurately an individual country’s current economic status; and who should contribute i.e. some former developing countries have developed and are now rich and considerable emitters, is a thorny issue.

The transitional committee set up by UN Climate Change has decided on some rules e.g. the funds are to be greatly concessional or grants. This was an issue for developing countries who stated that punitive loans in form of climate finance result to further debt and hampering economic growth on their part. The committee also proposed the World Bank to be the major vehicle used for such.

Climate finance is also up for debate at the meet. In Copenhagen in 2009, COP15 agreed to US$100 billion yearly from developed to developing nations for climate action. This has never materialized fully more than a decade later. The closest was 2022 at 83.3 USD billion according to OECD. Discussions will also take place concerning setting up a new climate finance goal in place from 2025. This process ought to conclude by 2024.

Another concern about this is that finance should be concessional and not loans. The climate finance system and multilateral development banks including the World Bank need to be restructured so as to be fair to the needs of developing countries; especially by not charging disproportionate, discriminatory and over the top interest rates.

The World Bank has especially been fingered as an overly commercial entity which is looking for profits and commercial success rather than environmental wellbeing.

The Global Goal on Adaptation will be discussed at the conference. The GGA is part of the Paris agreement and is meant to cover adaptation. Because the planet is warming and will continue to, adaptation is a crucial principle of climate action.

The GGA has not been defined clearly in the agreement and so negotiations and discussions are underway to do so. International negotiations on any issue are very particular on words used because they can carry legal responsibility. The GGA also needs to have measurable standards - clearly defined criteria of quantifying adaptation. This goal enhances adaptive capacity, strengthens resilience and reduces vulnerability to climate change.

Also about this, adaptation finance will be discussed. Currently it is only a quarter of all global climate finance. It is meant to be doubled by 2025 from 2019 standards. UN Environment puts the figure at US$160-340 billion by 2030 and US$ 315-565 billion by 2050 needed for adaptation in developing countries alone.

An important goal for the UAE COP presidency is “food systems and climate change.” Food systems refers to the soft and hard aspects of agricultural production and associated value chains. By itself, it is responsible for 1/3^rd or 34% of all greenhouse gas emissions globally. It includes land use and land use changes including deforestation and land degradation. Notably, food systems both contribute and are affected by climate change.

It is important to look at ways of reengineering and decarbonizing this sector while at the same time ensuring inclusivity - involving local communities, indigenous people, youth and women who form the bulk of agricultural workforce. This is especially true of smallholder farmers.

The intention is to make local communities in charge by equipping them with the right information, technology and other tools. It is “power back to the people.”

The Nairobi declaration at the Africa Climate Summit mentioned the need to rewire agriculture towards climate resilience and restorative aspect. Ensuring agriculture doesn’t reduce but rather promotes biodiversity is important. The Paris agreement also mentioned the need to cut emissions from agriculture while creating systems that withstand climate change. The intention is to now scale up production to feed the world’s growing population.

Of course fossil fuels is a debate that will continue at the COP. The Glasgow Pact at COP26 was the one that for the first time ever mentioned “fossil fuels” in the cover decision. Burning fossil fuels is the number one cause of climate change. Coal, oil and natural gas are hydrocarbons which when burnt produce carbon dioxide and a host of other polluting substances. But fossil fuels have been the source of energy for economic development and growth.

Both COP26 and 27 mentioned the need to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and phasedown unabated coal power. The European Union calls for complete phase out of unabated fossil fuels. Others call for a phase down. You see, language matters. Russia and some countries however want to exploit fossil fuel reserves and oppose this. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund said fossil fuel subsidies were at the highest ever –at 7 trillion USD. It is ironical talking about climate change and fuelling the same thing that causes it.

The G20 in September 2023 decided on the need to triple renewable energy capacity to 1500 gigawatts. Solar, wind and the like represent the future which does not harm the planet or people’s health but ensures economic prosperity and a safe future.

To be debated too is carbon capture and storage (CCS) especially with utilization (CCUS). There are questions about its viability, scaling up and safety. CCS can be used to capture emissions from burning fossil fuels especially coal in power plants and industries but to what extent? Technical issues on what “abated” means i.e. what percentage of escaping carbon captured meets the threshold for “abated?” Is it 9/10 (90%) like the IPCC says or what is it?

The role of just energy transitions is also up for discussion. Transition from carbon intensive to low carbon development must be fair and just. It must not imperil economic growth and development in the Global South or unfairly endanger people’s lives, livelihoods and incomes.

Workers’ rights must be ensured and the transition done in such a way that it doesn’t negatively affect nature or communities e.g. by increasing energy poverty or financial poverty.

It also must be safe for climate without harming people or ecosystems. For example mitigation must not come at the cost of development but should actually add to it. Maladaptation must also be avoided.

Another issue is other past declarations like the Global Methane Pledge and the Call to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030.

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas responsible for most of near-term warming. It is a short term climate pollutant. The pledge has been signed by upwards of 150 countries and the goal is to cut emissions by 30% by 2030.  Discussions should center on actual ways of implementation.

Another is the just energy transition partnership (JETP).

It means the manner in which countries will switch from reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels for energy to clean energy. It needs financial resources. The first of this initiative was a just energy transition partnership which saw a number of industrialized countries finance South Africa to the tune of US$85.5 billion to switch from coal to clean energy for power production.

This JETP In 2021 was followed by Indonesia at US$ 20 billion and Vietnam with others like India and Senegal in the pipeline.

Carbon markets are yet to be concluded. This article 6 affair has subsections 2 and 4 to be debated. The rules governing internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) and voluntary carbon markets (VCM) are yet to be hashed out. These rules should be fairly strict and stringent to avoid a number of issues such as double counting and to make these carbon credits viable. Contention on authorization rights, confidentiality matters and lack of transparency is also an issue.

Tight, clear and precise definitions of the process as well as measurement, reporting and verification of carbon credits is an issue. Also assigning of exact worth - a universally agreed price is an issue. Agreeing on the environmental worth of carbon credits has been debated publicly for long.

This market mechanism of the Paris agreement has come under fire from civil society who don’t believe in it. It’s however supported by UNFCCC and governments.

African leaders at ACS2023 asked for an international carbon price and tax on aviation, shipping and fossil fuel trade.

Industrial sectors that are “hard-to-abate” or now called “heavy emitters” such as cement, steel, chemicals, aluminium etc. will be looked at. All these sectors are energy heavy and mainly use coal as a fuel source in the production process and some like chemicals use it as feed stock.

They are all energy intense and release considerable carbon emissions.

However alternative fuels that are commercially viable and can be economically scaled up are still to be realized. Some like liquid hydrogen and biofuels are facing some snags in the aviation sector.

Of course a positive development at the COPS of 2021 and 2022 was the US and China agreement on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The two who are the biggest global economies are also the biggest emitters.

Given their economic relationship, this political pact will breathe fresh air into the process and give a good atmosphere.

One of the most important but overlooked topics is water. Water forms the basis of all climate change mitigation, loss and damage and adaptation. All physical and socioeconomic effects of climate change have a strong water element. Water is at the centre of climate action so negotiators would do well to discuss this in an in-depth manner.