COP 28 Outcomes - The UAE Consensus

The 28^th conference of parties to UNFCCC serving as the 5^th meeting of parties to the Paris Agreement was held from 30^th November to 13^th December 2023 in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

This was an important one because of the global stocktake (GST), the process which assesses all climate progress vis-a-vis the goals of the Paris agreement. The stocktake tells us where we are in attaining these goals and sets the new basis for individual national climate targets (NDCs). The first was in 2023 and thereafter every five years.

This 21-page decision was comprehensive because it involves everything in climate change and it contains every sector.

It starts by acknowledging the findings of the UNFCCC NDCs synthesis report and those of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report. Notably, human activities have caused a rise of 1.1C above preindustrial times, and rapid deep and accelerated emission cuts are needed this decade to keep within 1.5 and reach net zero by midcentury.

The Paris agreement has helped limit temperature rise somewhat, though the world is off track from keeping its goals.

The synthesis report says that all NDCs put together will reduce emissions by 2% by 2030 compared to 2019. 68 nations have so far submitted long term low emission development targets. 87% of global GDP[1] is covered by neutrality (climate, greenhouse or carbon).

Climate action should respect human rights, those of youth, women, children, people with disabilities, indigenous peoples, local communities, and right to health, development and the right to a clean and safe environment. Also mentioned is gender equality and climate justice.

The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, a part of the parent UNFCCC agreement, and requiring countries cut emissions to the level they emit was mentioned. That is, developed countries should take the lead in cutting emissions.

Some conclusions include tripling of renewable energy capacity worldwide, doubling energy efficiency by 2030, and accelerating efforts to net zero in energy systems by 2050 by using zero and low emissions fuels.

Perhaps the most important thing said was transitioning away from fossil fuels, given they are basically the cause of climate change. Many parties wanted a ‘phase out of fossil fuels’ but that was not agreed on. This transition is to be in a just and orderly manner and through to 2030, aiming to be within net zero by 2050.

Mentioned was use of technology to cut emissions in hard to abate sectors notably carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), nuclear energy, low carbon hydrogen and renewables (solar and wind).

Cutting of non-CO2 (methane) emissions by 2030, reduction of emissions in the transport sector by use of developed infrastructure and zero to low emissions vehicles, is a win for electric vehicles.

Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that don’t address poverty eradication or energy poverty was mentioned. Notably, the role of transitional fuels (speculatively natural gas) in energy transitions and for energy security was added.

Solar and wind prices have reduced and so higher and increased capacity is encouraged.

Domestic mitigation of climate change and voluntary cooperation is encouraged.

Holistic, integrated and balanced market approaches to mitigation with great consideration of equity, sustainable development and poverty eradication-potentially referring to carbon markets-was mentioned.

The Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework agreed at COP15 in Montreal was mentioned, highlighting the need to conserve and restore all natural ecosystems including terrestrial and marine ecosystems because of climate benefits (mitigation and adaptation) but also because of co-benefits such as protecting biodiversity, clean air and water, livelihoods and health etc.

Protecting and conserving ocean systems, mountains and forests all made it to the document with a call to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. Support and investment towards the same is to be enhanced including ‘results based payments.’

A coastal view. Photo by Juvan/Iwaria

An important point was protection of water and water related systems in light of climate change impacts, and ocean based mitigation.

Changing consumption patterns and reducing consumerism would lead to sustainable lifestyles geared towards a circular economy.

Developed countries are to set economy-wide and absolute greenhouse gas reductions targets and developing countries to mitigate climate change in light of different national circumstances.

Nationally determined contributions (NDCS) should encompass all sectors and all ghgs, should be aligned with long term low emission development strategies. Some countries will require support to prepare their NDCs.

Long term greenhouse gas development strategies should be revised by next year (6^th CMA).

Sharm-el-Sheikh mitigation program on mitigation focused on renewable energy in the power and transport sectors. Work continues.

A major issue was the global goal on adaptation (GGA), which is yet to be clearly defined. The discussion this year centered on the framework of the GGA and what it would include (themes). Though a lot of negotiation went into this, these indicators were not part of the final document.

These indicators would give a definite standard for adaptation to be measurable and it was a bit of a letdown they were not included.

The GGA enhances adaptive capacity, increases resilience, reduces vulnerability to climate impacts and promotes sustainable development. In its report, the IPCC noted adaptation is currently fragmented, sector specific and short-term. The GGA is important because it brings together the whole world to common adaptation goals.

There are big adaptation gaps between what is now and what needs to be done to adapt to climate warming within the Paris agreement.

National adaptation plans (NAPS) and adaptation communications (ACS) are part of documents submitted to the UNFCCC by each party and aim to increase adaptive capacity.

Notably, NAPs need support to be formulated and that’s usually through domestic means, but implementation especially by developing countries needs support.

Guidance on ACS should be issued in 2025. The UNFCCC secretariat is to provide regular synthesis reports about adaptation information found in biennial update reports, NDCs and ACs.

Global solidarity is required to actualize the GGA and every party, even non-state actors need to contribute.

Reducing death and morbidities from climate impacts on health was mentioned, as well as increasing resilience of infrastructure and human settlements to climate change. Protection of cultural heritage through use of indigenous and local knowledge systems is essential.

Nature based solutions and ecosystem based adaptation reduces impacts on ecosystems from climate change. This goes hand in hand with increasing resilience in food and agricultural systems.

And this is where the issue of adaptation finance comes in. Only a quarter of climate finance go towards adaptation, and at COP26, a decision was made to double adaptation finance (from 2019 standards by 2025). That’s still not forthcoming, yet vast adaptation needs require considerable finance.

Developed countries have been urged to prepare a progress report on this particular area.

The GGA includes assessment of risks, vulnerability and impacts, planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. By 2025, all parties should have NAPs and by 2030, implemented them considerably.

Countries need to come up with national inventories of climate impact and climate information services that are easily accessible and up to date.

The definition of climate finance has never been agreed upon and the COP urged developed nations to fulfill their pledge to provide US$100 billion yearly to developing countries (2020- 2025).

The Special Climate Change Fund, Adaptation Fund, Green Climate Fund and the Least Developed Countries Fund each got finance pledges.

Another issue was the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). It’s the new climate finance goal from 2025 onwards. This issue was pushed to COP29.

Some leaders noted the need for new innovative finance measures including private finance (central banks, finance institutions), and the reform of multilateral development banks to remove rigidity and make them more oriented to climate action.

There are calls to tax heavy emitting sectors such as shipping and aviation, and so raise climate finance.

More financial, technical support towards developing countries helps them increase ambition and implementation of adaptation.

Quite a major win for this COP was the loss and damage fund. Long agitated for, it became a reality, with US$100 million from UAE and Germany each, to start it. By end of the meet it stood at US$770.6 million. It’s to be run by the World Bank, though this doesn’t sit well with developing countries because of the bank’s high interest rates and the shareholding majority being Western. However, it’s an independent mechanism under the UNFCCC.

The Santiago Network, which provides technical support will be run by a 26-member board majority by developing countries, and the secretariat is under two UN agencies (UNDRR[2], UNOPS[3]).

Still contended is the actual name of the fund, and who the legally required contributors are. Currently emerging economies who are heavy carbon polluters can contribute. It’s open to all.

Another area was just transitions. This refers to social dialogue and social protection in light of accelerated decarbonization efforts. Protecting the rights of workers (labour rights), and communities especially in accessing natural resources is important. It hinges on creation of decent work, quality jobs and economic diversification. Of course there might be social and economic opportunities and challenges arising from efforts to act on climate according to the Paris agreement.

Parties are to produce national case studies on impacts of implementing response measures to climate change (mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage).

The Katowice committee is to build up efforts to implement recommendations from previous COPS.

Concerning technology, the text notes existing gaps and asks for more uptake of tech. The role of the Climate Technology Centre Network working with the technology mechanism is highlighted. There is need for more support, access and international cooperation in this areas as well as rapid and scaled up deployment of clean technologies. More innovation is needed and the use of artificial intelligence to be explored. The technology implementation program is meant to support developing countries.

In terms of capacity building, there’s need for more capacity building especially in developing countries; and more participation by indigenous and local communities is encouraged. The financial mechanism under the UNFCCC and the Adaptation Fund were called upon to enhance support to developing countries.

Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris agreement touching on market mechanisms (carbon markets) still wasn’t concluded, mainly due to disagreements on proper definitions (methods)and rules around “reversal’, “leakage”, confidentiality and additionality.

International cooperation on climate change is vital because climate issues are transboundary, so multilateralism is supported. An open and supportive global economic system is to be encouraged as opposed to today’s arduous and a bit skewed systems.

High level champions’ role in bringing attention to climate action was recognized, and the role of the Rio convention and the sustainable development goals working in tandem with the Paris agreement was recognized.

The input of non -state actors is crucial.

The next round of NDCs should be submitted in 2025, 9-12 months ahead of COP30 (CMA7), and should have an end date of 2035. They should show clearly how they’ve been informed by the GST.

They must be ambitious and progressive, showing highest possible ambition, and must also be aligned with the long term emission targets (2050). They should cover all ghgs not just carbon and involve all sectors.

About transparency, the biennial transparency reports (BTRs), national inventories should be submitted by each party by 31^st December 2024.

The COP28, 29 and 30 presidencies are to craft a “roadmap mission to 1.5C” in order to accelerate ambition and action within this decade and keep the target achievable.

Action for climate empowerment encompassing climate education, awareness and trainings as well as public participation also got a mention.

The IPCC is to work to inform the subsequent GSTs.

Something that propelled this COP and signaled goodwill for its success was the Sunnylands statement by the USA, which is the largest historical emitter and China, the current highest emitter; to work together on climate change, particularly mitigation.

The next conference of parties (COP29) will be in Baku, Azerbaijan next year and the high stakes COP30 held in Belem, Brazil in 2025.

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[1] Global Domestic Product

[2] United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction

[3] United Nations Office Of Project Services