A Summary Of The Emissions Gap Report 2023

This yearly document is produced by UN Environment Program and is the fourteenth in a series. It assesses all of 2023 in terms of climate change especially mitigation. The title is meant to bring attention to a very important fact – we’ve missed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets once more, and with it dire consequences.

2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, with temperature records being broken again, and September especially being the hottest month ever. Temperatures this month hit 1.8 degrees above preindustrial times, and collectively, 2023 had 86 days that were above 1.5 degrees.

So what is an emissions gap? It is the difference (gap) between the collective result of emission cuts as outlined in the NDCs[1], and the emission cuts needed for the least cost pathways outlined in the AR6[2] in order to keep within 1.5 or 2 degrees. Though parties to the Paris agreement show intention to cut emissions, the level of ambition outlined in the NDCs is nowhere near what is needed to keep the world within 1.5C. We need more.

The next round of NDCs – submitted every 5 years – is in 2025 (covers up to 2035) and should be informed by the result of the global stocktake which was adopted at COP28[3].

Firstly, new records of temperature, greenhouse gas and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have been set again in 2023.

Secondly, in order to keep within 1.5, mitigation will have to be vastly increased by 2030.

Global emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to hit 57.4 GtCO2eq[4]  in 2022. All sectors except transport have recovered from 2020 and are emitting more than in 2019.

Use of fossil fuels and industry constitutes two thirds of all emissions. Flourinated gases (F-gases), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) collectively makeup 25% of all current GHGS , have highest  global warming potential (GWP)  and concentrations are rising rapidly. In 2022, F-gases grew by 5.5%, CH4 by 1.8%and N2O by 0.9%

The G20 constitutes 76% of all emissions, but within the bloc, individual countries increased their emissions while others cut them. The U.S.A, India and China upped their share while Brazil, EU and Russia cut them. This group contributed 80% of historical collective fossil fuel and LULUCF[5] emissions. LDCs[6] came in at only 4%

African Savannah. Image by Tomas Forgac/Iwaria

Energy consumption increased in 2022, electricity from coal, oil and renewable energy grew, while natural gas fell by 3%. Net electricity growth was strongly supported by renewable energy growth, with solar having record additions.

However, governments globally plan to install twice the capacity of fossil fuels now by 2030, which is far inconsistent with the goals of the Paris agreement.

Per capita emissions vary greatly between countries. Russia and the US had 13tco2eq which is double the global mean while India had lower than 6.5. The G20 came in at 7.9tco2eq, LDCs at 2.2tco2eq and SIDs[7] at 4.2tco2eq. 10% of wealthiest people worldwide produced 48% of emissions, and two thirds of them live in developed nations. The lower 50% of global population contributed 12% of global warming from 1850-2021.

India has 18% of global population but only 5% of warming while the USA with 4% accounted for 17% of warming.

Currently, there are 149 new or updated NDCs. A lot of these have multisectoral and economy wide emission reduction targets as compared to the initial INDCs in 2016.

Before2016, emissions would have risen by 16% by 2030. Today it will be 3% because of the Paris agreement. This has lowered the implementation gap. The implementation gap is the difference between intended emission cuts in the NDCs and what is actually happening (being implemented) in reality. The difference between paper and action.

Globally, unconditional implementation of NDCs would result to an implementation gap of 1.5GtCo2eq (in 2022 it was 3Gtco2eq) by 2030 and for conditional NDCs, this gap is 5GtCo2eq. The G20 falls short of their NDCs by 1.2 Gtco2eq yearly until 2030.

By 23^rd September, 97 parties had net zero pledges accounting for 81% of emissions. 37% of global emissions are covered by net zero pledges for 2050 and 44% are for net zero in the second half of the century. With 76% of emissions, the G20 determines when the world reaches net zero.  All of them except Mexico have net zero targets but implementation falls short because there are still no laws and policy in place, no requisite plans, and no alignment with near term (2030) targets.  Their emission cuts don’t match net zero ambitions.

The emissions gap for 2030 is still high. Current unconditional NDCs result to a gap of 14Gtco2eq for 2 degrees and 22Gtco2eq for 1.5. When conditionals are added, the gap reduces by 3Gtco2eq.

For 2 degrees, the emissions gap by 2030 is 14Gtco2eq with 66% for unconditional NDCs and 11Gtco2eq when conditional NDCs are implemented. For 1.5 degrees, it is 22Gtco2eq with 50% chance and when conditional it is 19Gtco2eq.

To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, emissions must be cut by 42% and to keep below 2 degrees, they must be reduced by 28%. Deep yearly cuts are needed up to 2030 in order to lower the emissions gap.

By 2035, to keep within 1.5, 25Gtco2eq of emissions must be cut, and 36Gtco2eq must be cut to abide below 2 degrees.

However, current policies combined will result to 56 GtCo2eq in 2035 which is 36% higher than what is required to keep within 2 degree and 55% higher than requirements for 1.5.

This is why pre-2030 mitigation needs to be heightened and deepened and very much need to exceed the level of ambition in the current NDCs reaching 2030. This makes it possible to attain the targets set for 2035, especially because the guiding IPCC report (with least cost pathways) was released in 2020 and the carbon budget has somewhat been used since then.

Current policies will result to warming above 3 degrees up to 2100 and more beyond. Net zero won’t yet have been attained. Full implementation of unconditional NDCs will result to 2.9 degrees above preindustrial times this century, while conditional NDCs will result to 2.5 degrees rise.

If all conditional NDCs, net zero pledges, long term low emission development targets (LT-LEDT) are met, warming is limited to 2 degrees with 66% throughout until 2100.

To keep within 1.5 and 2 degrees, emissions must be drastically cut; over and above current NDCs and net zero pledges must cover all GHGS.

All countries must increase economy wide and low carbon transformations in order to keep within the long term temperature goals of the Paris agreement.

High income (current high emitters and historically high emitting) countries must cut emissions more and set the pace while low and middle income countries must limit emission growth.

Therefore global cooperation is required especially in light of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in light of different national circumstances.

The climate solidarity pact of the United Nations Secretary General proposes that wealthier countries cut emissions more and provide technical and financial help to low and middle income countries and support low carbon transformations.

Now, energy accounts for 80% of carbon emissions. As of 2018, all existing and being built coal, oil and gas fields and mines would produce 3.5 times more than the carbon budget required to keep within 1.5 and the almost exactly what’s needed to stay within 2 degrees.

Globally, we must transform energy systems and transition away from fossil fuels while gearing towards development.

Low and middle income countries face challenges in changing to low carbon energy development pathways. Energy is necessary in order to support economic development, industrialize and urbanize, and eradicate poverty.

Energy poverty is an issue because 2.4 billion people lack access to clean cooking methods and 775 million lack access to electricity especially women and children.

This higher energy demand can be met by low carbon energy especially renewables which have registered exponential growth and become less expensive. This however, will be controlled to a large part by differing national circumstances and endowment of natural resources.

Low and middle income countries need more financial support because of already existing high debt, being net importers of fossil fuel energy and because they receive lesser clean energy investments.

Upper middle income countries have already stated building clean energy investments but this faces several challenges like stranded assets and loss of employment as countries pivot to renewables as opposed to non-renewable energy.

Affordable finance must be guaranteed and availed to low income countries, and this also includes restructuring of international financial systems and multilateral institutions. Concessional financing and debt financing are also important - capital costs are 8 times higher in developing than developed countries.

 Low income countries can incorporate climate resilience and low carbon development into their development agenda and strategies in diverse areas such as housing and transport sectors and food systems.

The next round of NDCs offer a good opportunity for ambitious and strategic planning for climate action hand in hand with development.

International support is needed for the formulation of NDCs.

Now, the longer the world takes to cut emissions sufficiently, the more we will need to employ carbon dioxide removal (CDR). To be clear, carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere should not be a substitute to cutting emissions, but both are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement. It is not possible to completely remove emissions through emission reduction strategies; because there’s already residual emissions in the atmosphere, which will need CDR in order to reach net zero and stop further warming.

Conventional CDR which includes afforestation, reforestation, managing existing forests, reducing land degradation and restoring degraded lands etc. removes 2Gtco2eq every year, and this happens mostly in developing countries.

Novel CDR e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture, direct air capture, biochar, enhanced weathering removes 0.002 Gtco2eq annually. Both must be employed over time. Conventional CDR especially comes into play before 2050 (to reach net zero) and novel CDR after that in order to now be net negative.

CDR of course has challenges with competition for land use, water rights, protection of the rights of indigenous peoples, ensuring permanence of stored carbon (i.e. can be lost from forest fires or fragmenting and degrading forest land, leaks from the ocean floor or geological formations), and political and social acceptance of especially novel CDR.

Novel CDR needs time for technologies to mature, ensure scientific safety and gain political acceptability.

Innovation is highly encouraged in meeting the challenge of developing measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems in order to enhance their trustworthiness.

The title of this year’s report was Broken Records:  Temperature hits new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions again.

 

  

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[1] Nationally Determined Contributions (climate plans)

[2] Sixth Assessment Report, by the IPCC

[3] 28^th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC, held in Dubai, UAE in 2023.

[4] Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

[5] Land use, land use change and forestry emissions

[6] Least Developed Countries

[7] Small Island Developing States