A Summary Of The Global Stocktake Report

The global stocktake is mandated by article 14 of the Paris Agreement that requires collective assessment of climate action and progress towards attaining the goal of the agreement. It’s done every 5 years with 2023 being the first GST. This technical report is the second step in the GST with the third being adoption of its conclusions - done at COP28.

The first finding is that the Paris agreement and coming into force of the UNFCCC[1]  have driven climate action at a global scale. However, we are still not on track to keep within 1.5/2C. In 2010 at Cancun, temperatures were projected to be 3.7-4.8 degrees above preindustrial levels in 2100. In 2015, analysis of all INDC[2]s indicated 3-3.2 degrees.

At COP27[3], mitigation announcements and long term net zero targets indicated a rise of 1.7-2.1 degrees in 2100.

The agreement has increased support for climate mitigation and adaptation especially in developing countries. In addition, the IPCC[4] reports, most recently the AR6[5] have heightened and deepened awareness of climate change impacts, risks and driven support to vulnerable countries.

The small window to keep below 1.5 is quickly closing yet global emissions are not at par with modeled pathways to keep below 1.5, neither are the long term emission reduction goals sufficient.

Adaptation is largely in the planning stage but needs to be actualized to increase resilience, increase adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability. Losses and damages are already occurring. More needs to be done in climate centered financial support.

The world needs to transition to low greenhouse gas emissions (GHGS) and climate resilient future, while eradicating poverty, encouraging sustainable development and protecting natural resources. Strategies towards this should be economy wide and involving all of society. Political, social, economic, financial and institutional support is crucial. Finance flows should align with the PA.

Barriers to climate action are historical, social and economic inequity as well as rigid financial institutions.

The role of non-party actors is essential. Private sector, civil society, subnational governments, indigenous peoples, cities further bolsters parties’ response to climate change. Women and girls, and indigenous peoples need to nave their voices heard.

Rapid change towards climate resilience maybe disruptive but can produce many chances and opportunities for socioeconomic growth. Already existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure will cause an overshoot of 1.5 degrees  - they must be limited.

Equity is important for climate action. Human rights, gender and youth, environmental protection and just transitions must be taken into account. Climate action must be inclusive especially to those directly affected.

There are both emission and implementation gaps currently, which is inconsistent with 1.5 degrees.

In 2011-2020 emissions were the highest they’ve ever been in history (CO2-410ppm, CH4-1860ppb, N2O-332ppb). 42% of all cumulative historical emissions since 1850 were from 1990-2019. In order to keep within 1.5 with little or no overshoot globally, emissions should peak from 2020-2025. Peaking will take longer for developing countries. After peaking, all parties should undertake deep emission cuts.

That is, to keep below 1.5C, emissions should be 43% below 2019 levels by2030, 60% below 2019 by 2035 and 84% below by 2050. Then net zero CO2 emission can be attained by 2050.

The 2022 NDC synthesis report noted an emissions gap of 23.9 Gtco2eq to keep within 1.5C by 2030.

However, more innovation, climate finance, support towards mitigation especially geared towards renewable energy, energy efficiency especially in industry and reduced conversion of natural ecosystems is crucial. International cooperation and useful climate policies are also necessary.

90% of NDCs have quantified mitigation targets but more ambition is needed from all parties, especially developed nations based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities in light of different national circumstances.

Actual climate action in reality should measure up to long term low emission development targets (LT-LEDTs) and pathways.

Transparency is important especially submission of biennial transparency reports.

NDCs can result to synergies with sustainable development and lead to poverty eradication; but can also cause tradeoffs which if managed  well produce good results. Efficient mitigation has co-benefits such as reduced air pollution, better human and ecosystem health, clean water, healthy soils and fruitful agriculture, more energy access and creates employment.

Net-zero for CO2 and all GHGs by 2050 requires phasing out unabated fossil fuels, scaling up renewables and clean energy, ending deforestation and reducing land degradation, widespread electrification for end users, energy efficiency, protecting ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks,  shifting to less intensive agriculture and implementing supply and demand side measures.

Energy systems constitute 74% of global mitigation needed to reach net zero. Just energy transition partnerships (JETPS) are welcomed.

Solar energy costs fell by 85% from2010-2019, wind by 55% and lithium ion batteries by85% in the same timeframe. Solar has grown by ten times and electric vehicles by 100 times. Energy storage has improved, and this is especially critical for building and transport sectors.

To keep within 1.5/2C, the AR6 notes investments in climate action need to be 3-6 times what they are now. Unabated coal should fall by67-82% by 2030 compared to 2019 and low carbon energy sources be 97-99% of electricity generation by 2050. Unabated coal should be phased out though timing for this can differ nationally. Fossil fuel subsidies should be removed and JETPs pursued.

Industry accounts for 25% of emissions while cities in whole contribute 67-72%. Solutions include smart urban planning, green spaces and afforestation, climate proofing infrastructure, waste (solid and water) management, electrification and green buildings (6% of global emissions).

Transport at 15% of emissions needs to phase out the internal combustion engine, encourage electric vehicles, have cities that are cycling and pedestrian friendly, use public transport, improve energy efficiency to reduce consumption, and reduce shipping and aviation emissions.

AFOLU[6] was 22% of emissions in2019. Measures include reversing and halting deforestation by 2030, of which 95% of it happens within the tropics. Shifting to plant based diets and increasing production without further land expansion, reduction of food loss and waste, inclusive policies for land rights and tenure and payment for forest based services.

An African marine ecosystem. Image/Juvan/Iwaria

International cooperation is needed in mitigation because it involves non state actors and cuts across borders e.g. shipping and aviation organizations are international.

Just transitions including ensuring workers’ rights, gender equity and allocating equitable carbon budgets, finance and support while ensuring equity (CBDR, inter and intra generational equity) in all its forms is necessary for climate action.

In adaptation, there’s progress in increasing resilience, adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Already, there are cascading and compounding climate risks and impacts across systems. It’s causing loss and damage across human society, infrastructure and ecosystems including loss of species.

Every fraction of a degree of warming increases adaptation needs and causes losses and damages. Efficient mitigation reduces both.

The global goal on adaptation (GGA) outlines adaptation as the responsibility of all governments at all levels including setting up climate information services.

Climate resilient development should be part of all local and national planning processes and development plans.

Extreme climate impacts reduce the ability to respond to loss and damages.

Adaptation currently is near term, sector specific and unequally distributed regionally and globally.

Adaptation planning should be mainstreamed, implemented, monitored and evaluated, and adjusted accordingly. It should be continuous and locally led depending on local and national circumstances.

National adaptation plans (NAPS) need sustained action to be fully implemented. They need national and international support. The GGA framework currently being developed includes areas like water, health, food and agriculture, cities and settlements, infrastructure, ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, cultural heritage, livelihoods and poverty eradication etc.

Transparent reporting  in adaptation communications (ACs) is important. Guidelines for that will be revised in2025. In 2022, 80% of all NDCs including all developing countries had an adaptation component.

140 countries are formulating NAPS but only 46 have submitted them. NAPS should be country driven, participatory, gender sensitive, transparent, progressive and iterative ( repetitive & adjustable).

The COP agrees that adaptation efforts by developing nations should be compiled in a report by the secretariat.

The adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation should be measured stage by stage, over time and be improved accordingly. Adaptation finance should be increased.

Opportunities for adaptation have already been mainstreamed to a degree into existing development plans.

Climate information services to meet local needs are important especially early warning systems. Databases containing information from disasters can help in future preparedness, planning and implementation.

Climate change strongly impacts more vulnerable groups like indigenous peoples, low income neighborhoods, women and girls, local communities and so exacerbates inequities.

International cooperation and shifting financial flows to adaptation can incentivize it.

Every degree of warming increases loss and damage, and it is better to stay within 1.5 degrees rather than overshoot and come back later. Even at 1.5C, there’ll be residual losses and damages because of emissions already in the atmosphere.

When hard limits for adaptation are reached in ecosystems, loss and damages increases vastly e.g. forest dieback, and can reverse carbon sinks to sources.

Loss and damage needs responsive action across all climate policies (laws and regulation) and included in sustainable development. Strategies and efforts towards poverty eradication, protecting biodiversity, education and awareness creation all help alleviate loss and damage.

Acquisition of knowledge and increased research, as well as financial and technical support all help avert, minimize and address loss and damage.

Public support and financial resources are necessary to build capacity, knowledge and resilience to climate impacts.  For example, consideration of climate risks should be used when planning and funding infrastructure growth. Technology can be used to address loss and damage. Private sector resources can support these needs too. International multilateral institutions should create facilities specifically to deal with loss and damage. As of COP28, the loss and damage fund now officially exists.

Finance towards adaptation and loss and damage is much less compared to mitigation.

The US$100billion figure per year meant for developing countries has never been met by developed countries. In 2020, US$ 83.3 was mobilized by them towards climate finance. In 2019-2020, 57% of all climate finance was for mitigation, 28% for adaptation and cross-cutting finance (for both) was 15%.

Accelerated financial flows needs to be mobilized from all sources, because public finance is not enough.

International financial architecture and systems needs to be transformed to be fair and equitable to all, especially developing countries.

When developing countries NDCs are assessed, there were 4274 needs for finance and those that had a figure (costed) were 1782 needs – from 78 NDCs – and the total requirement was US$ 5.8-5.9 trillion.

Costs of capital in developing nations are 8 times higher and the cost of servicing debt take up a large portion of national budgets limiting availability of resources towards climate action.

Methodologies for measuring climate impact need to be made robust. Finance flows should align with low emissions and climate resilience. There is sufficient global capital it just needs to be redirected to climate action and resilient growth.

Vulnerability to climate impacts can lower credit ratings for countries, lowering access to capital. Trillions of dollars have to be unlocked and redeployed to climate and development needs.
In 2019-2020, US$ 803 billion was available - only 31-32% of what’s needed to stay within 1.5/2C.  In contrast, US$ 892 billion was invested in fossil fuels yearly and fossil fuel subsidies in 2019-2020 were US$ 450 billion.

Innovative finance such as debt for climate swaps, emissions pricing, special drawing rights and blended finance can be used.

We need more adoption of clean and climate friendly technologies. Finance is needed to support technology. Technology should be easily accessible and less expensive especially for developing nations.

More research into climate friendly technology and appropriate legal, institutional and policy framework is needed. Hard-to-abate sectors like cement, steel industries need innovative technology to address emissions.

Capacity building, education and training are all important to achieve goals of NDCs, NAPS, LT-LEDTs, BTRs etc., and so is international support.

This inaugural GST shows we’re not on track to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement, and so sets the bar to increase climate mitigation ambition in the next rounds f NDCs in 2025. It can also inform the first ever BTRs in 2024, the new collective quantified goal, and adaptation communications

The report identifies some information gaps such as more research is needed on consequences of overshooting 1.5c and coming back later – for example, to what extent is carbon dioxide removal needed for this; potential losses and damages during overshoot periods, and proactive (preventive) adaptation to reduce this losses and research into reversible and irreversible impacts.

The GGA definition is still an ongoing process under the Glasgow Sharm-el-Sheikh program – will be a part of the 2^nd GST.

 

 

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[1] United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change/UN Climate Change

[2] Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

[3] 27^th conference of parties to the UNFCCC

[4] Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change

[5] Sixth assessment report

[6] Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use