A Summary Of The IPCC Report - Impacts, Adaptation And Vulnerability

 This report builds on previous work done by the panel in the fifth assessment cycle (AR5) and all reports since then (land, ocean and cryosphere, 1.5 degrees warming, and the WG1). It is based on a wider and deeper knowledge base accrued since then.

It starts by noting the interdependence of the human world and Earth systems (climate, biodiversity and ecosystems). Climate change is occurring simultaneously with challenges such as biodiversity loss, population spikes and shifts, overconsumption and overstretching of the Earth’s natural capacity and resources, socioeconomic phenomena such as inequity, injustice and health concerns.

The spotlight is on climate risk in terms of vulnerability, exposure, resilience, adaptation, equity and justice especially climate justice. Notably, efforts by people to respond to climate change can further trigger risk.

Adaptation refers to making the best of what happens while maintaining function, or better still evolving (transforming) to better. In the human world, it happens before a climate impact, but in nature it occurs after a climate event.

The report recognizes indigenous, scientific and local knowledge in order to better comprehend climate change, risk and adaptation. It also recognizes climate justice and the third pillar of climate action which is loss and damage.

A key focus is on transforming ecosystems, regions and various economic sectors in order to stop/slow global warming and prevent limits to adaptation. Climate risk can be compounded because of multiple climate hazards happening simultaneously and spilling over to other sectors.

The impacts of climate change are widespread and pervasive across the human world, ecosystems, infrastructure and the economy. Such include floods, sea level rise, wildfires, and high volumes of rain, droughts and heat waves. These are now more in number and frequency since AR5. They have caused coral bleaching and species extinction which might be permanent and irreversible, tree death, loss of kelp forests and destruction of property to mention but a few.

    Photo by Aimee via Iwaria

The loss and damage therefore is more substantial and greater than in previous observations.

Currently, species are moving to the poles or higher places. Loss of Arctic ice and mountain glaciers is affecting water availability. Alongside permafrost thaw, it’s irreversible, and a threat to certain endemic species as their habitats are destroyed. Ecosystems on land and sea are altered in form, structure and purpose and are quickly becoming unable to adapt any more.

Climate change has affected food and water security slowing the rate of agricultural growth, including soil health globally. This has caused malnutrition and nutrient deficiencies affecting whole regions but especially vulnerable population groups (pregnant women, children, elderly etc.). It’s also affected the financial wellbeing of subsistence farmers and all who rely on agriculture for economic prosperity – affecting entire countries. The same is replicated in the aquaculture and fisheries industry.

Climate change has triggered the spread of diseases through the air, water, vectors and animals. It’s caused mental health challenges (anxiety and stress). Heat stress has caused death.

Climate change has negatively affected infrastructure and livelihoods. This is particular in cities where climate impacts are compounded by air pollution, poorly distributed population and the urban heat island effect. Most affected are low income areas because of poor infrastructure, poor environmental integrity, low adaptation capacity and high numbers of people.

Multiple effects of climate change can simultaneously affect industries economically e.g.  a heat wave can affect tourism, business, fisheries while workers have lower productivity because of heat stress. Climate events have triggered displacement and migration of people e.g. because of lack of enough food and water. Around 3.6 billion people live in pre-occurring conditions that further worsen the impacts of climate change. Such include marginalization, effects of colonialism, gender and social inequity, overexploitation of land and sea resources etc.

Destruction of ecosystems through pollution, deforestation, biodiversity loss and encroachment all increase the vulnerability of environmentally-dependent people to climate change. This includes indigenous groups, local communities, women and girls.

Non-climatic environmental destruction e.g. pollution and habitat fragmentation reduce the ability of ecosystems to respond to climate change both in mitigation and adaptation.

Future vulnerability to climate change will be determined by past, present and future trends in human society e.g. consumerism and environmental exploitation etc.

Developing areas and regions are more vulnerable to climate change because of low level of basic services and infrastructure. Places with conflict, poverty, gender inequity and other forms of marginalization are also more vulnerable.

As such infrastructure especially in vulnerable areas such as rural, Arctic, mountainous and poor regions needs to be climate proofed, enhanced and strengthened to cope with climate shocks.

Near term warming (2021-2040) will cause loss of forests, kelp, and coral while sea level rise will lead to flooding, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion and attendant problems for the natural and human world. All economic sectors especially water and energy will be constrained. Risks are more especially in vulnerable and exposed areas e.g. near coastlines or river basins. Adaptation will be crucial.

Near term risk is currently higher than in AR5.  Some risks are irreversible especially where adaptation is low and exposure heightened. Staying downwards of 1.5 degrees reduces losses and damages compared to overshooting 1.5 and coming back later.

For the mid to long term (2041-2100), biodiversity loss and the harm done to ecosystems will increase with every additional fraction of global warming. On land 3-14% of species will be permanently lost at 1.5 degrees, increasing to 48% at 5 degrees of warming. In oceanic systems, the risk increases from moderate to very high with an upward trend of warming. In some special hotpots biodiversity loss is tenfold.

Now, physical water availability and water related climate phenomena (droughts, rain, floods, cyclones etc.) increase continually with warming. Stream flow extent, freshwater availability and groundwater flow are all adversely affected. Early snow melt and glacier retreat reduce water supply while flooding destroys infrastructure and causes loss of life and property damage. At 3 degrees of warming, risks of submersion and inundation increase by 3.9 times.

Food security is affected by sea level rise, droughts, heatwaves and floods which affect soil health, pests and diseases and pollination. Fish catch and aquaculture is affected by marine heatwaves, ocean acidification etc.

Global warming threatens water supply for island nations and coastal cities and communities, while also threatening their existence. Assets of high economic value located in such areas are in danger of loss.

Economic damages because of climate change are not linear and are higher for developing countries than developed ones. They are more intense at 3 degrees than at 1.5 degrees.

Higher temperatures will increase climate effects which will contribute to migration and conflict.

Climate change brings on compound, cascading and complex risks. Multiple hazards happening simultaneously increase risk to people and nature, and this can spill over from sector to sector. For example droughts with heatwaves can cause loss of crop harvests, impact livelihoods, reduce income, affect nutrition while contaminating food crops with toxins all at the same time. In fisheries, algal blooms can affect drinking and bathing water, poison fish affecting human diet and even cause death.

One climate impact can cause multiple effects in different sectors.

Some responses to climate change can heighten climate risk i.e. maladaptation, like growing crops used for energy (BECCS) can reduce land required for agriculture, biodiversity, human settlement and increase competition for water. This increases vulnerability to further climate impacts.

Now, overshooting 1.5 degrees in the following decades will result to more impacts than staying below 1.5. These climate consequences will increase and hit both nature and people, being worse for coastlines, polar and mountainous regions and other exposed and vulnerable areas.

Key ecosystems serving as sinks that lock up greenhouse gases such as permafrost, forests, wetlands and peatlands will turn and become carbon and methane sources instead; making it difficult to notch back to 1.5 degrees.

Now, adaptation has multiple co-benefits in addition to protecting from climate impacts, and it is already occurring globally and locally. However there still remain gaps between what’s needed to combat climate risk and current adaptation levels. Presently, adaptation is small scale, sector-specific, near term and fragmented. It also lacks enough resources with marginalized areas showing the biggest adaptation gaps. Adaptation needs to be long term though there’s uncertainty with scale and intensity of climate impacts in the near future. The impacts cannot be wholly, completely and accurately predicted. More finance would be useful.

The water sector takes up the biggest chunk of adaptation efforts. This includes enhancing nature e.g. protection of wetlands, rivers, forests, planning and zoning laws and engineered methods like irrigation (while avoiding salinizing the soil) and reduction of groundwater extraction.

The food sector requires adaptation in terms of urban agriculture, cultivars, land diversification, changing diets and agroforestry; all of which helps biodiversity as well.

Forests require diversifying tree species, better management, protecting against fire and pests and restoring forests. Notably, all stakeholders especially those on the ground need to be involved.

Oceans need more protected and conserved areas and allowing for migratory movement between both, spaces created for refuge for delicate species.

Ecosystem based adaptation (eBA) is useful in urban areas and elsewhere because it protects communities and alleviates harsh climate effects such as flooding. However the more the globe warms the lesser the ability of this method to work.

Rural and urban infrastructure needs to be climate proofed and strengthened all while improving livelihoods, and being people and nature-centered.

In urban areas, adaptation is hampered by technological, technical, institutional and financial capacities. Resources should also be targeted towards natural and social adaptation and not just physical. Informal settlements should be considered more and not neglected.

The less fortunate can be protected through various measures such as social protection and cash transfers.

Sea level rise particularly needs adaptation because it threatens seaside cities and island nations. Higher levels of warming however makes this more and more difficult.

The energy sector requires more resilience, renewable energy and diversification, efficient water use and energy efficiency. The health sector needs measures such as education campaigns, vaccination efforts, relocations and early warning systems, better health cover and access.

Displacements and migration require presence of law enforcement and orderliness, support for environmentally dependent livelihoods etc.

In some regions soft limits to adaptation have already been reached. Most climate finance is towards mitigation and not adaptation, and the little finance available is from public sources. Climate impacts lower availability of resources for adaptation because they hurt the economy’s capacity to avail finance. Some ecosystems such as coral and tropical forests are reaching hard adaption limits, and at this point eBA becomes futile.

Adaptation does not entirely stop loss and damage which is taking place globally but unevenly – more in the areas most hit by impacts.

Avoiding maladaptation is more necessary now than in AR5. Maladaptation is promoted by fragmented responses to climate change. Sector specific and near term responses are harmful. We need long term thinking and commitment to see it through.

Biodiversity and ecosystem resilience is further eroded by maladaptation e.g. artificial responses to flooding hinder naturally corrective responses. To stop maladaptation, widespread consulting and long-term commitment is necessary.

Some of the enabling conditions for adaptation include political goodwill and economic support, policy and institutions, science, monitoring and evaluation, comprehensive governance, knowledge etc.

Climate resilient development (CRD) refers to combined mitigation and adaptation efforts yielding sustainable development. More is needed towards this than during AR5.

C.R.D is dependent on social acceptability and cultural values, equity and justice, geographical location, economy and different national circumstances. Some areas present more opportunities than others.

For resilient development in infrastructure for example, old facilities can be retrofitted while new ones built with climate proofing in mind.

Urban areas and coastal regions especially offer adaptation options because of high populations and unique biodiversity. 30 to 50% of the Earth land and water spaces can be conserved to enable both adaptation and mitigation.

Ecosystems and biodiversity protection offers multiple benefits in addition to climate resilient development. Protecting them can help prevent further warming. Beyond 1.5 degrees of warming, this will however be quite hard.

Climate resilient development is taking place but faces increasing difficulty at 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming.

All scientific evidence accrued to today shows that climate change needs to be countered for the sake of the planet, people and nature. Any more delay in widespread action will further reduce chances of meaningful action in order to have a safe and prosperous future for everyone.