A Summary Of the Synthesis Of The Sixth Assessment Report By The IPCC

 

This synthesis summarizes the findings of the three working groups and the previous three special reports.  It assesses the state of climate knowledge to the present. First, is that global surface temperatures have warmed by 1.09 degrees since 1850-1900 up to 2011-2020. Warming is higher over land (1.59 degrees Celsius) than over the ocean (0.88 degrees).

Well mixed greenhouse gases (ghgs) have caused a rise of temperatures by 1.07 degrees from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019. The noted increase in these gases is definitely from human activities. In 2019, the ghg levels were 12% above records in 2010 and 54% higher than 1990.

Developed countries have the highest per capita emissions. Human influence on the global climate has led to impacts such as floods and heavy precipitation, droughts and heatwaves, cyclones and sea level rise. In fact the seas have risen by 0.20 meters from 1901-2018.

About 3.3-3.6 billion people are directly vulnerable to climate change and many areas lack requisite development capable of somewhat protecting against the effects of climate change. Ecosystems are also directly vulnerable to climatic changes and this puts at risk all those who depend on the environment whether economically or in other ways. These, who are the least responsible, includes small-scale farmers, indigenous groups, local communities, women and girls, least developed countries, islands and coastal areas, rural and urban poor etc.

The effects of climate change cause food and water insecurity, health problems, economic downturns and affects biodiversity negatively.

Health effects have been through water, vectors, food, pollen and dust, heat, and mental health. It has led to death in case of heatwaves.

Climate change has and will continue to cause irreversible damages and losses for example, loss of species like coral, loss of glaciers and permafrost thaw all affecting ecosystems and dependent life.

A freshwater ecosystem- Aimee via Iwaria

 

Economic sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and forestry have been negatively impacted. Urban areas face hot extremes further affecting informal settlements the most, and also compound air pollution and environmental degradation.

Climate effects hamper the achievement of sustainable development.

Adaptation to climate change is already taking place everywhere globally but not at the required pace or scale. There’s a gap between what need to be done and what’s taking place. The economically challenged experience the biggest gap.

Adaptation currently is small scale, short term and sector specific which makes it unsuitable for long-term and all round use. This is maladaptation and affects the poor and marginalized the most. One of the remedies is inclusivity and widespread consultation.

Some places, for example coastlines, are and have reached soft adaptation limits while some ecosystems like Arctic, tropical or mountainous areas can no longer adapt to climate change and are transforming or disappearing instead.

Barriers to adaptation can be political, social, economic, cultural, technical or technological or institutional. Lack of enough awareness on climate change is also contributory.

The Paris agreement, Kyoto protocol and UN Climate change have all helped  a good deal to mitigate climate change by giving a sound framework and basis through which all stakeholders at any level (bottom to top) can act on climate change. It’s helped to avoid quite a sizeable amount of emissions.

Renewable energy on the other hand is now cheaper and more accessible. It’s also more socially and environmentally accepted. Energy efficiency, electrification, electric vehicles, and socio-cultural behavioral changes to address overconsumption and wastage are some of the mitigation solutions that are workable and easy to implement.

Now, the collective NDCs by COP26 fell far short of the required action this decade (2020-2030) to attain the goal of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees this century. In fact we will reach 1.5 degrees by century-end. The decade ending 2030 is crucial for climate action.

Also, the policy outlined in the NDCs does not reflect what is happening on the ground. In reality, the world is lagging behind in implementing NDCs. There’s a gap. Climate policy is also uneven between sectors. Some are more ambitious than the rest etc.

Low emission technologies are a gradually growing sector in developing countries but still require more encouragement and awareness.

Finance flows are still not enough to fund climate action globally though there’s enough resources if the will to act was available. Finance is still geared towards mitigation than adaptation, yet fossil fuels attract more investments than climate action.

Global warming will continue in the near-term (2021-2040) because of the amounts of greenhouse gases already in the air. However cuts in emissions would result to better air quality. Every additional fraction of warming matters a lot and actually results to more severe impacts.

Increasing warming will cause concurrent and compound effects such as heatwaves with droughts or cyclones with heavy flooding. This results to multiple and cascading effects such as food and water insecurity, conflict and migration, diseases and poverty, all happening concurrently and because of a given impact.

Levels of development and financial capabilities help shield against climate harms and lessen vulnerability. Unsustainable consumption patterns and environmental destruction further compound climate change effects.

Long term climate impacts like sea level rise will continue for hundreds to thousands of years, however rapid, deep and sustained emission reductions could slow the rate and magnitude of the process.

The likelihood of abrupt and irreversible climate system changes increase with warming e.g. loss of polar ice sheets, loss of coral reefs and loss of biodiversity (species).

Low likelihood high impact events become more likely. Adaptation gradually becomes harder with increased warming. Ecosystem based and water related adaptation both face hard limits with higher warming. This results to increased losses and damages and especially in vulnerable places like small island states, rainforests, coastal wetlands, mountains etc.

Maladaptation is usually adaptation that is short term and sector specific and can actually harm resilience to climate change while negatively affecting sensitive groups like indigenous people, biodiversity and ecosystems.

Now, we need rapid, deep and sustained reductions in emissions in every sector. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be necessary to reach net zero and keep it there or go net negative. CDR removes carbon emissions from the atmosphere.

A thousand gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent can cause warming of 0.45 degrees. We have 500 Gtco2 left to  keep warming at 1.5 degrees (50% chance) and 1150 Gtco2 to keep warming at 2 degrees (67% chance). Cuts in other non-carbon ghgs can help keep within warming limit.

Now, all existing fossil fuel infrastructure will definitely catapult us beyond 1.5 degrees.

To keep within 1.5 degrees this century, we have to reach net zero by 2050, and for 2 degrees net zero should be attained by 2070s.

All pathways keeping us within 1.5 degrees with little or zero overshoot require deep, rapid and sustained emission cuts immediately. This means more clean energy, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS), electrification, energy efficiency and CDR.

The energy, forestry, land use and land use change (LULUCF) reach net zero faster than industry, transport and buildings.

Sustainable development works well with climate mitigation measures and has other benefits like economic prosperity, ecosystem and human health, clean water and air and food security.

However, it requires the inclusion of everybody and upholding the rights of everyone. That is, widespread consultation and participation.

Most paths show a slight overshoot of 1.5 degrees coming back to below that later on. Coming back requires increasing levels of CDR. Exceeding and returning to 1.5 might be difficult because of triggered feedbacks like drying peat lands, burning forests and vegetation and permafrost thaw further releasing ghgs.

Extended overshoot results to more and widespread risk across society and ecosystems. Some systems like coral reefs, the Arctic or tropical forests will be permanently lost.

In light of all this, climate resilient development is necessary. It involves mitigation and adaptation to advance sustainable development. However increasing warming makes this type of development harder.

To happen, it requires inclusive governance, international cooperation, stronger and fair policy, social and gender equity, non-state actors, inclusivity and ecosystem stewardship.

The health of the planet, current and future generations, economic prosperity, ecosystems and biodiversity is at risk from climate change and increasing warming.

Deep, rapid and sustained cuts in emissions and implementing adaptation are both needed to lessen future loss and damages. This decade is very important for the two. Delayed mitigation results to more climate harms and reaching the end of adaptation capacity (limits). It also results to ‘locked in emissions’ - infrastructure that continues to carbon pollute - and stranded assets. The most vulnerable face the brunt of it. But quick action results to better wellbeing of people, planet, nature and economy.

Part of limiting warming is to check the levels of global surface ozone and lower methane.

Economic benefits of mitigation outweigh the economic costs of mitigation. Thus mitigation is to happen in every sector, country, and region and throughout the world.

These cuts are ‘unprecedented’ in scale but the speed required has been witnessed before.

The energy sector requires electrification, energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy, digitization e.g. smart grids, use of CCS and cuts in methane.

Industry and transport need electrification, energy and material efficiency, alternative fuels e.g. low emissions hydrogen and ammonia, sustainable biofuels, circular material flow, improved batteries etc.

Cities, settlements and infrastructure need climate proofing, better design, environmentally friendly materials, green energy, green spaces material substitution etc.

Land, oceans and biodiversity need more protected and conserved areas, improved management and restoration of wetlands. Reduction of food waste/loss, plant based diets and climate smart agriculture helps. This would reduce nitrous oxide, methane and carbon emissions. About 30-50% of planetary terrestrial, ocean and freshwater areas need legal protection.

Health and nutrition require early warning systems, vaccinations, universal access to cheaper and efficient cover (insurance), social protection nets, climate and health literacy and capacity building.

Mitigation should be integrated into development plans and not be treated in isolation. In such manner there are more benefits than tradeoffs.

This should be done with equity and inclusion at the center. Social and gender equity, climate justice and rights-based approach is more accepted, transformative and sustainable.

In order to lessen the impact of climate change on already vulnerable groups, use of social protection and cash transfers can help people living especially in low income areas sensitive to climate harms.

Well off people have more emissions than those within modest means.

Transfer and diffusion of technology, capacity building, climate education, climate finance, energy access especially for those lacking are some ways to tackle climate change in an inclusive manner.

Subsidized electricity for urban and rural poor is a good example of that.

Proper and strong climate governance and policy, strong institutions and involvement of all stakeholders including non-state actors like the media, private sector and civil service is recommended.

International cooperation, public participation and awareness, regulatory and economic instruments e.g. carbon price, pricing reforms, removal of fossil fuel subsidies are all crucial

Different forms of knowledge i.e., scientific, indigenous and local knowledge is good practice.

Marshalling and delivery of climate finance is also important in order to support green development. Simplified and clear access to this, and restructuring of debts and also giving grants instead of loans are some way to support climate action.

International support and exchange of technical knowhow is particularly helpful even in crafting climate plans (NDCs).

Finally, we have a small but crucial window of opportunity to act on climate, but it is closing.

For the sake of present and future wellbeing of life on Earth, we need to act – and are well able to.