A Summary Of The State Of Climate Africa Report 2022
Globally, in 2022, the average temperature was 1.15 degrees (1.02-1.28) above 1850-1900 mean, this was modified by the cooling effect of the La Nina. 2015-2022 are the warmest 8 years on record with 2022 being number 5 or 6 warmest ever.
Atmospheric concentrations for greenhouse gases were 415.7 plus or minus 0.2 parts per million, methane at 1908 plus or minus 2 parts per billion and Nitrous oxide at 334.5 plus or minus 0.1 ppb. This was 149%, 262% and 124% above 1750 which is preindustrial age. 2022 was the highest they’ve ever been.
Ocean heat was at the highest ever in 2022 and more melt from ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater has caused sea level rise of 4.62 millimetres per year (mmyr) from 2013-2022. The ocean has absorbed 25% of atmospheric carbon yearly causing a reduction in ocean pH by 0.017-0.027 units every decade since 1980s.
In Africa, near surface temperature in 2022 was 0.16 degrees C (0.06-0.28) above the average (1991-2021) and 0.88 degrees (0.74-1.07) above 1961-1990. 2022 ranges from 9-16th hottest ever on the continent for 123 years. Data sets used refer to 1961-1990 baseline because of unavailability of information before 1900.
All six regions experienced warming with the overall rate being +0.3 degrees C per decade (1991-2022) compared to +0.2 degrees C in 1961-1990. The global trend is 0.2 degrees C (1991-2022). North Africa is warming faster at 0.4C/decade (1991-2022) while Southern Africa is slowest at +0.2C/decade (1991-2022).
Northern Africa has the highest temperature anomaly (deviation from normal long-term mean) at 0.50C above 1991-2020 average and 1.40 C above 1961-1990. South Africa had the 4th warmest year in 2022 since 1951 with Cameroon having one of the coldest in two decades at -0.24 degrees C below 1991-2020 period.
In terms of rainfall, below average rain in North and North Western Africa with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Western Libya having a deficit (dip) of 150 mm. Northern Egypt and Sidra had higher than average rain. Western Africa had a delayed onset monsoon which was particularly heavy for the second consecutive year. Heavy rain pounded sections of Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Togo, Benin and Nigeria.
Northern Mali, South Eastern Guinea, parts of Cote D’Ivoire, and Nigeria had especially heavy rain.
In Central Africa there was a large positive anomaly (higher than normal) of 200mmyr above average particularly in some areas of Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo and the DRC Congo. Other parts of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, DRC and Gabon had lower than average rain.
In Southern Africa, a positive anomaly- higher than recorded average- of 200 mm was witnessed in some parts of Angola and South Africa while other places in Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe experienced a negative dip of 200 mm below average.
In East Africa, Sudan and Tanzania had wetter than normal conditions while the rest of the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, northern Uganda) had drier than normal condition and an acute multiseasonal drought.
In the Western Indian Ocean, there were lesser amounts of rain over Madagascar and Seychelles while the Comoros and other parts of Madagascar had higher than average rain. The intense rain at the beginning of the year reduced the impact of the severe drought beforehand.
In terms of sea level, in Africa the average was more or less the global mean at 3.4mmyr plus or minus 0.3mm/yr. The Red Sea was the highest regionally at 3.7mmyr and the Western Indian Ocean at +3.6mmyr. The Mediterranean is lowest at 2.4mmmyr. The first two can be influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Footsteps by the sea. Image:Aimee/iwaria |
Rainfall is controlled by various meteorological phenomena like the La Nina (this was the triple dip La Nina, having occurred with such like conditions 3 times in the last 50 years), El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole measured by the Tropical Northern/Southern Atlantic (TNA,TSA index) and the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO index) etc. In general, rainfall is controlled by sea surface temperatures (SSTS) which determine evaporation rates of ocean water. Higher SSTS equal more rain, lower ones, dry conditions.
Extreme events over North Africa begin with high temperatures and heatwaves that caused wildfires which killed 44 in Algeria while Morocco and Tunisia lost considerable agricultural yield and forest acreage (10,000 ha in Morocco and 5900 ha in Tunisia). Some Tunisian cities hit a record 47.8 degrees in June while Libya had a heavy snowstorm in January and a heavy sandstorm in March in Tripoli.
In West Africa, heavy monsoon rain resulted to heavy flooding in Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Sudan. 600 lost their lives in Nigeria, 37,000 people affected 9000 houses were destroyed in Cameroon. Chad had the heaviest rain in three decades (30 years).
In East Africa, five failed rainy seasons with below than average rain puts the lives of many at risk in Ethiopia, Northern Kenya and Somalia. This was the worst drought in 40 years. Both Sudan and South Sudan flooded with over a million affected in South Sudan and 340,000 in its Northern counterpart.
In Southern Africa and South Western Indian Ocean, the highest impact tropical cyclones and storms hit the region with the storm Ana and the cyclones Batsirai and Emnati, the storm Dumako, cyclone Gombe and storm Jasmine making landfall in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. They took over 800 lives and affected over 2.8 million people collectively.
In South Africa, sub-tropical depression Issa caused heavy rain over Kwa Zulu Natal killing 400 people and displacing 40,000 others.
Climate related risks on people and the economy are mostly in terms of water related disasters with droughts and floods causing massive loss of life and economic damages. 48% of this is because of drought which primarily takes lives and floods at 43% primarily causing economic damages. About 5000 have died, 110 million people affected while damages amount to US$8.5 billion.
Both cause conflict over scarce natural resources and drive loss of biodiversity, lower agricultural productivity but promote agricultural expansion (searching for new virgin lands). Coupled with population pressure, it will result to conflict.
In terms of agriculture, cereal yield in Northern Africa at 33 million tonnes was 10% below 2017-2021 and 14% below 2021. In West Africa at 76.4 million tonnes it was 7% higher than 2021 because of extra good rains.
In East Africa, pasture and croplands suffered greatly due to drought and water unavailability with food prices shooting up to between 45-75% higher than 2021 in Somalia. Acute food insecure people hit 4.4 million between October and December 2022 in Eastern and North Eastern Kenya and plenty of livestock died. It was terrible.
In Southern Africa cereal output was 38.5 million tonnes, 5% higher than 2017-2021 but 10% lower than 2021. In Madagascar, Malawi and South Africa the output was higher than average but Zambia and Zimbabwe recorded a dip.
Because of climate change and food insecurity, food imports will increase from US$35 billion to US$110 billion by 2025.
Displacement of population occurred throughout 2022. In Horn Of Africa, the worst drought in 40 years resulted to considerable internal displacement (between regions) and across borders. 512,000 people were internally displaced within Ethiopia, 1.2 million in Somalia and 60,000 crossed over from Somalia to Ethiopia and Kenya. Funding cuts put into jeopardy food assistance for 75% of refugee population.
In Southern Africa repeated storms and cyclones in quick succession aggravated displacement as there was little time to recover in between events. Hundreds of thousands (736,000 in Mozambique, 190,000 in Malawi) were affected and countless homes (142,000 in Mozambique) and shelters destroyed alongside property of unknown value.
When it comes to climate policy, there is a strong need to support climate governance and incorporate adaptation into sustainable development.
There is a need to strong institutional framework which should be comprehensive and working in tandem with other relevant institutions – climate change is holistic and multi-sectoral.
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Programs for Action (NAPAs) and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) need sufficient support including financial resources to implement.
Africa still has quite some way to go to develop sufficient and strong enough weather and climate observation facilities. Data is very important for decision making, early warning systems, and disaster reduction and adaptation strategies.
This would save lives significantly, reduce economic costs and damages and remove property out of harm’s way.
Heavy investment is needed to turn African economies to low carbon (aid mitigation) and also to fund adaptation.
Investment is particularly needed in agriculture, food security, energy and infrastructure to help withstand the vagaries of climate change.
This can be international finance, private finance or from public finance like budgetary allocations.
By February 2023, 90% of African NDCs had been updated and priorities for adaptation were agriculture and food security, water, disaster risk reduction and health. Mitigation focused on energy, waste and agriculture.
Africa contributes the least to global warming globally at 1.04 metric tonnes per person while the global average 1s 4.69 metric tonnes per person.
Implementing Africa’s NDCs collectively will require US$ 2.8 trillion from 2020-2030. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has set aside US$ 25 billion for climate finance by 2025 with 67% for adaptation and ongoing efforts to raise US$13 billion for its development fund.
COP27 saw new pledges for the Adaptation Fund and operationalizing the Santiago Network For Loss And Damage. There was also progress on the Global Goal For Adaptation (GGA, discussions continuing at COP28) all of which are pertinent and relevant to Africa.
Climate services in Africa need to be significantly upgraded and improved to better aid disaster and risk preparedness. This ranges from climate data, monitoring, analysis, diagnostics and predictions. Less than 30% of countries provide climate predictions while less than 40% provide tailored products.
Early warning systems only cover about two thirds of global population, a third are not. 60% of Africa is not covered. At COP27, the Early Warning System for All (EW4ALL) led by the UN and WMO was approved.
There are efforts by the African Union (AU) and partners to launch a comprehensive early warning system for Africa (African Multi Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System – AMHEWAS)), a plan already in gear which is to be working by 2030 and help the African public with relevant early warning information.
The EW4All Action Plan for Africa executive plan was launched at Africa Climate Summit 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya.
These systems require the support of all relevant parties like the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, academia and scientific institutions, multilateral development banks, national disaster agencies, the UN agencies, NGOs and the private sector.
It also needs innovative financing.
In terms of losses and damages, strong global mitigation and strong local adaptation are needed to reduce levels of loss and damage.
However, residual loss and damage will continue occurring continentally because climate change is already in motion.
In a 4 degrees Celsius spike in global temperatures with strong adaptation, losses and damages could account for 3% of annual GDP by 2080.
Priorities therefore are to reduce loss and damages, to recover from loss and damage and to deal with permanent loss and damage (restitution).
All this requires significant resilience building, managing risk, assisting rehabilitation and redress for unavoidable losses and damages.
At 2 degrees C, losses and damages are at US$ 290 billion and US$ 440 billion at 4 degrees.
Both adaptation and mitigation are needed to avert losses and damage but one without the other will result to more of such losses and damages.
Technical support and expertise, scientific data gathering, knowledge dissemination systems, early warning and financial support are needed to address irrecoverable losses.
Innovative financing mechanisms include implementation of individual climate actions and the Paris Agreement , the use of the loss and damage fund, concessional loans and grants, blue and green bonds targeting African natural resources such as oceans and forests, debt for climate swap measures and better priced carbon markets.
All this can raise green finance.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report relies on a variety of supporting actors like ocean and atmospheric agencies, national met agencies, observational networks, and satellite imagery that monitors climate.
Essential climate variables are measured over land, water and air ad include various parameters across living things, mineral cycles e.g., carbon and water cycles, and elements like wind, temperature, ice, moisture, rainfall values etc.
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