A Summary Of The State Of Climate Africa Report 2021

The report was produced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) based on different climate variables over sea, land, air and living organisms such as air and water temperature, glacier and sea ice, leaf index, vegetative cover, water vapour, greenhouse gas fluxes, soil carbon and moisture, river discharge and lake size, permafrost and albedo, groundwater, marine life, rain and cloud cover etc.

It starts with noting that Africa is warming faster than the global average at 0.3 degrees per decade between 1991-2021. 2021 is the third or fourth warmest year on record with North Africa the warmest of the six African regions (East, West, North, South, Central, Indian Ocean Island countries).

Sea level rise rate is the highest globally with the Red Sea and South Western Indian Ocean recording the highest values. All related effects like coastal flooding, erosion and saline water intrusion into groundwater will affect 110-116 million people. Water will become scarce continentally and coupled with increased consumption will trigger conflict, ill-health and higher energy production costs.

In terms of temperature, globally 2021 the average was 1.11 degrees plus or minus 0.13 degrees  above 1850-1900 affected by La Nina. 2015-2021 were the 6 warmest years with 2016 the hottest ever. In 2020, of the three major greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide (CO2) was at 149% above 1750 levels at 413 parts per million, methane (CH4) at 262% which is 1889 parts per billion and nitrous oxide (N20) at 123% which is 333.2 ppb.

Ocean heat increased further in 2021 and with it ocean acidification. Loss of ice sheets and ocean warming caused sea level rise of 4.5mmperyear from 2013-2021. The ocean absorbs 23% of atmospheric carbon yearly. All this reverberates across tourist and fisheries sector, coastal economy, and affects life processes of marine organisms.

In Africa, temperatures continued to soar at 0.3 degrees per decade between 1991-2021. It was +0.2 degrees above 1962-1990, +0.8 degrees above 1901-1930. Near surface temperatures was 0.68 degrees above 1981-2010 average. All regions warmed considerably except Southern Africa which had a slight dip. North Africa hit 0.4 degrees above 1991-2021 which is twice the rate globally and double the regional mean of 1961-1990. In 2021 this region was 1.22 degrees above the long term mean while West Africa was 0.91 degrees above 1981-2010. The number of extremely hot days has spiked with Africa recording 10 such days.

Plants making their way up. Image(courtesy)

Rainfall was below normal in North Africa with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya recording such instances but North Eastern Egypt received higher than normal rain. West Africa had a delayed onset monsoon which was particularly heavy over Ivory Coast, Niger, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Mauritania, Togo, Liberia and some places in Nigeria had low rainfall.

Central Africa experienced heavy rain while some countries like Cameroon had both low and heavy rainfall in different areas

In East Africa the entire horn of Africa which is Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia and some parts of Tanzania were drier than normal, especially October to December. Some parts like north western Tanzania and northern Sudan had heavy rain.

In South Africa some like Zambia, Mozambique and Zimbabwe were drier than normal while some parts like South Africa and Botswana were wetter than usual.

The Western Indian Ocean countries like Madagascar and Comoros had less than usual rain with a negative anomaly of 160 millimeters.

Mountain glaciers continued to irreversibly recede because of climate change. The frozen tops of Mt. Kenya, Mt. Kilimanjaro and Ruwenzori Mountains are shrinking faster than the global mean.

Mt. Kenya has lost 44% of glacial area (121,100 m2) from 2004-2016 while Mt. Kilimanjaro has lost 85% over 100 years – 11.40km2 in 1912 to 1.76km2 in 2011. The Ruwenzori range has gone from 2km2 in 1987 to 1km2 in 2003.

The two individual standalone mountains have lost volume because of reduced rain and atmospheric moisture while the Ruwenzori has lost glaciers to rising air temperatures. The local driver of such loss is less snowfall and the remote driver is reduced moisture supply from the Indian Ocean because of climate change and higher temperatures. Mt Kenya and Ruwenzori are projected to lose their glaciers by 2030 and the Kilimanjaro by 2040.

Coastal sea level is increasing globally but is highest in Africa. The Red Sea is at 4.4 mmyr, Tanzania and Mozambique (+3.9mmyr), Western South Africa and Namibia (3.8mmyr), Atlantic coasts of North Africa (3.6mmyr/), Western Africa (3.3mmyr, same as global mean) while the Mediterranean is lower than global rate at 2-5-3.1mmyr. All this has caused flooding and erosion and is projected to continue.

In terms of water bodies, lakes Victoria and Chad which are freshwater lakes have experienced climate caused fluctuations. Nam Lolwe (L. Victoria), bordering three East African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania) is  the largest freshwater lake in Africa and is 80% recharged by rain and 20% by rivers draining into it. It increased during the El Nino of 1997-1998 and declined to the lowest recorded value in 2006 due to drought and a negative Indian Ocean dipole. It broke its banks again in 2019-2020 resulting to heavy flooding, massive displacement, crop loss and negative economic consequences but receded in 2021. It is a direct reflection of rainfall patterns which are controlled by climate change.

Lake Chad borders the Sahara desert and is shared by Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria and Niger. It has reduced in size by 90% from 1960s where it was 25,000 km2 to 1350km2 in the 2000s. Human mismanagement like unbridled consumption and climate change has caused its shrinkage. It has split into the northern and southern pools. The North is fed by the Komadogu-Yobe River but has shrunk due to reduced vegetation cover and high evaporation rates while the South fed by the Chari-Logone River has increased because of consistent rainfall in the area. Of course all economic sectors dependent on the lake including fisheries, tourism, agriculture and biodiversity loss have all declined. The lake is now stable due to consistent groundwater from the two rivers.

The river Niger had its highest ever discharge in 2020-2021 causing massive flooding affecting over 500,000 people – the worst historically. The lowest discharge was in 1984-1985 because of severe drought. In September to October 2020, the river discharged 3000m3/s, higher than the average of 1400m3/s in the period 1991-2020.

The White Nile had a higher than long term average discharge in 2021 with the peak in September 2018 caused by above average rainfall in the upstream basin (Malakal).

The Shabelle River had below normal discharge except in May-June 2021 where a spike caused heavy riverine flooding.

The Congo-Oubangui River had normal to average discharge as from January 2017 to May 2022. In 2021 it was near to below the recorded mean.

Rainfall across Africa is affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the La Nina, sea surface temperatures across the Indian and Atlantic Oceans and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Higher SSTS result to heavy rain and cyclones, while the La Nina caused dry conditions especially over East Africa. Lower SSTs cause dryness.

In 2021 there were several extreme climate events with floods hitting South Sudan for the third year straight. Heavy and sudden rains caused widespread flooding in Nigeria, Benin and Niger resulting to flooding and loss of crops and there was a cholera outbreak. In Congo, the rivers flooded as heavy rain fell in various areas. Torrential rain caused Lake Tanganyika to flood affecting neighboring DRC Congo and Burundi.

Tropical cyclone Eloise made landfall in Madagascar and Mozambique in January 2021 causing extreme rain and flooding.

There was drought in some areas of the Sahel from May to June and September to October.

East Africa experienced three failed rainy seasons and delayed onset of rains. The little volumes of rainfall led to the worst drought in 40 years.

Southern Madagascar continued to experience drought for two years straight.

Strong heat waves were recorded over Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and Morocco resulting to expansive wildfires that destroyed farms, forests and shrubland and caused health problems.

Sandstorms and duststorms were recorded over North Africa as well highly impacting visibility and aviation. In Algeria, huge winds lifted sand and deposited it in Europe, with Egypt, Libya and Nigeria likewise affected. Education and transport across land, sea and air were suspended and normal activities halted because of these strong storms.

The impacts of climate change affected agriculture and caused food insecurity across Africa, with fires burning thousands of hectares of arable lands across North Africa, killing thousands of farm animals and taking human lives.

In West Africa reduced productivity and population displacement fueled further by insecurity contributed to food insecurity. A lot farms were washed away while some dried up.

In East Africa, 1.5 million cattle died in Kenya and the country lost 42% of maize output. Drought was declared a national disaster in September. In Somalia, cereal production was 58% below 1995-2020 average. Cassava prices in Madagascar shot up by 20-70%. Fall army worms, locusts in Malagasy and sandstorms left the country on the brink of famine.

In terms of water resources, 90% of Somalia experienced acute drought in December 2021 with 3.2 million people affected. Wells and rivers dried. In Madagascar 70% of people had no access to drinking water and faced food, hygiene and sanitation problems.

In 2021, around 14.1 million people were internally displaced within Africa while others crossed national borders and became refugees. Climate change has been found to exacerbate conflict.

And the phenomenon is affecting attainment of all sustainable development goals particularly on ending poverty and hunger, accessing clean drinking water, gender equality, good health etc.

Floods in Niger, Nigeria and Chad displaced people while tropical cyclones did the same down South. Cholera outbreaks were recorded in all affected countries and caused illness and death.

In terms of socio-economic impacts, increased temperature lowered agricultural growth by 34% since 1961. 1.5 degrees of warming will cause loss of 9% of maize crop in West Africa, 20-60% of wheat loss in Southern and Northern Africa causing malnutrition, lower income and livelihoods and affecting gross domestic product (GDP).

Since 55-62% of Africa’s workforce is in agriculture, it is gravely affected.

Hydroelectric and thermal energy production is affected because of lesser amounts of water in rivers and lakes. Damages from sea level rise particularly in coastal cities will be 2-4% of Africa’s GDP by 2030.

It is crucial therefore to invest in disaster preparedness and reduction in order to reduce displacement in particular.

In terms of policy, as of March 2022, 53 states had submitted NDCs of which 43% were updated. Adaptation should be based on climate science and localized. Data from meteorological and hydrological institutions should be used. Scientific data helps in formulation of adaptation plans.

The revised NDCS by the continent indicate 83% intend to cut emissions though Africa contributes the least globally. The climate plans are aligned with the SDGs on poverty reduction, ending hunger, providing clean water etc. The main focus is agriculture, health, water, health, gender mainstreaming and disaster reduction with land use, energy and agriculture the major part of climate mitigation.

Deforestation is the main driver of carbon losses in Africa. Land deforested is often never reforested or when done it is negligible (little).

The NDCs need financial support with US$407 billion needed for adaptation and US$715 billion for mitigation (figures by Africa NDC Hub).

By 2030, droughts and floods in particular will cost US$ 50 billion every year.

Water related services are the most crucial in the climate change era. Different countries are at different levels of provision of climate and water services ranging from less than basic, basic, essential, full and advanced. Planning and capacity is not nearly enough or exhaustive with financing also fragmented. Integrated water resources management is incomplete and not comprehensive.

839 million people lack basic hygiene services and 418 lack access to drinking water of good standard.

Water is all round critical to reduce poverty, reduce hunger, reduce ill health, increase green energy and provision of jobs, reduce disasters and attain SDGs. It powers economic growth.

The report recommends integrated multi hazard early warning systems where today only 4 out of 10 people are covered. Investing in end to end drought and flood early warning systems and integrated water management systems is crucial. Data collection is indispensable as policy decisions must be supported by actionable data which therefore speaks of a need for training of manpower and capacity building.

We need comprehensive data.

Cooperation between and within borders – between local and national governments and with neighboring countries, institutional cohesion and working together and public awareness campaigns are all crucial.

Finally, establish a National Framework for Climate Services whereby 30 African countries are in the process.

The report was compiled from data availed from different institutions including national met services, scientific bodies, satellite imagery and climate and weather observation models and projects.