Water, Security And Climate Change

Climate change is already affecting water availability, quality, quantity, access and security. Rising greenhouse concentrations are raising atmospheric temperatures and a hotter atmosphere has a higher capacity to absorb moisture. High temperatures result to increased evapotranspiration and this has two effects.

First is that it dries up the areas over which water is evaporating, and it results to heavy rainstorms when this water distills as rain over other areas. Droughts and floods are common effects of climate change and they are predicted to increase globally as we surely inch towards the 1.5 degrees mark above preindustrial times.

What this means is that water security - the state of having good quality water in abundance over short or long term durations - is directly impacted. Water security is needed in both natural ecosystems and the human world. Water quality is also determined by climate change as floodwaters can easily be contaminated by waste, poisoning fresh water sources.

Water access to surface and ground water is largely determined by rainfall, which is influenced by climatic changes. Surface water recharges ground water aquifers. Quantity of water received is likewise heavily influenced by climate change, with more water falling as rain instead of snow, which puts in jeopardy water supply in the hot months (spring and summer). Mountain glaciers which supply freshwater downstream in those months are rapidly receding due to high climate change-induced temperatures. Lakes and rivers supplying fresh drinking water are also reducing in size because of drought.

In terms of human security, water has very many implications because all life and its processes depend on water. Human, animal and plant life need water. Ecosystems too. Industrial and domestic needs require water. Vital areas that undergird economic development such as energy production require water.

Amisom soldiers at work. (Amisom/Iwaria)

The entire water cycle itself is under increasing interference by human caused climate change, and this will continue in the foreseeable future.

Over 90% of climate change disasters are through the medium of water. In fact, everything has to do with water. Either too much or too little of it, and at the wrong time. Droughts, heavy rain and floods, sea level rise, glacier retreat and permafrost thaw, heat waves, dust and sand storms all have to do with a lack of water or too much of it.

Their impact on human society and different sectors also have to do with water.

Agriculture is one of the biggest employers globally and controls food security. One of the goals of the Paris agreement was to cut emissions from agriculture, increasing food production and increasing resilience to shocks. Agriculture is supported by water. Both rainfed and irrigation agriculture require sizeable quantities of water. Climate caused droughts cause widespread crop failure while floods wash away farms. This results to hiked up food prices and shortage of staples.

Food is an emotive issue and it is very easy to trigger discontent among people faced by unaffordable or inaccessible (unavailable food). So serious an issue this is that it can cause social tensions and political upheaval resulting to regime changes. If you want to get voted out of office, make wrong food policies. Wastage of water, non-existent or poor understanding of proper management of water resources integrated with a strong view of climate change impacts, can easily ruin agricultural sectors for different countries, with resultant effects on food and eventually human security.

Loss and damages inflicted by climate change e.g. washed away farms and dead livestock, which are the economic mainstay of small holder farmers and pastoralists; can very easily arouse discontentment and protests especially by aggrieved people who feel authorities were not doing enough to respond or prepare for the situation. Rainstorms which destroy people’s homes can elicit public anger at governments’ unpreparedness.

Another cause of insecurity is fights over control or access of water resources. Extended drought seasons and heat waves cause water scarcity and there is a scramble for existing water resources. Communities sharing a water resource such as a river or dam will clash over rights to the dwindling water. Such have different user needs e.g. ranchers and pastoralists, or farmers and herders. Upstream and downstream users also fight over unequal abstraction and withdrawal of water from shared or communal sources. Some users divert water for their individual needs inconveniencing others.

Lack of access to dams and pans for water for household use during dry seasons can be a source of discontentment. People may be denied access, if the water is reserved for other uses like energy generation.

The same case applies to regional or international transboundary resources. Conflict is bound to arise especially if resources do not have an agreed method of sharing e.g. a legal treaty determining rights and obligations of parties.

In terms of transport, water is used for navigation, and transporting of goods and people to inland areas. When droughts cause the level of water to drop, navigation may be impossible or severely hampered. In that case, insecurity and illegal trade arises from unavailability of the goods formerly transported especially if there is no alternative transport network that is sufficient and convenient e.g. rail or roads.

Security forces may be unable to cover and patrol areas formerly easily accessible by water.

Dissidents may also take advantage of climate change caused droughts or floods to stir up conflict and disaffection towards governing authorities. This increases insecurity.

Illegal water trade and abstractions thrive in times of scarcity. High prices for water which may be unsafe also thrive when mandated agencies are experiencing shortages of water.

In some cases, whoever controls water controls power.

Climate change is warming up waters in the seas and lakes negatively affecting fish reproduction which requires cooler waters. Some species like salmon migrate upstream to breed and hatch fingerlings. Algal blooms and coral bleaching also negatively affect fisheries. Coral reefs house a variety of fish and are threatened by high temperatures and acidification, consequences of climate change. Algal blooms and marine heat waves are caused by high temperatures and result to death of marine life because of lack of enough oxygen. Communities reliant on fisheries face loss of livelihoods and income. This will result to an increase in crime (e.g. narcotics or organized crime) as people seek income elsewhere. This is true especially for youth.

Naval establishments like bases and camps are under immediate threat from sea level rise and cyclones. Sea level rise basically swallows up buildings as seawater encroaches inland. Cyclones physically bash and destroy structures. Both bring flooding which destroys infrastructure through water damage. In this way, security is impacted because such areas house training bases, weapons storage, ship building etc. This has implications for national and international security. Elsewhere, the Coast guard, which guards national waters could easily be overwhelmed and inconvenienced by sudden climate impacts.

Another form of conflict and insecurity is human-wildlife conflict, spurred by climate change. Droughts and floods cause animals to invade human dwellings and destroy farms or inflict injury or death to people or livestock. Not only so but people neighboring wildlife protected areas turn to poaching when droughts bring economic hardship and endanger other forms of earning a livelihood.

Cyclones, droughts and floods directly displace people and render some areas uninhabitable. Displaced people themselves can be angered by their inadequate government response. Frankly, authorities may be caught off guard and unprepared by climate disasters or be overwhelmed, having inadequate capacity or resources to respond.

All this can trigger discontentment.

Displaced people camps are not always sufficiently policed and house many forms of violence and insecurity e.g. sexual and gender based violence (SGBV) and terrorists e.g. Dadaab camp.

There is also tension between host communities and refugee populations. Stress put on available resources can cause tension and trouble between both groups.

Social, cultural and religious tensions can be further aggravated if both groups have different value systems.

Migration through national or international borders is already an emotive issue in today’s world. As climate change causes more displacements, political tensions are bound to whip up emotions and cause hatred and insecurity.

Climate migrants are a new field (phenomenon), and are not covered (protected) by international law. They don’t have rights as such, can experience statelessness and be susceptible to human trafficking and illegal immigration.

Small island states and countries with low-lying coastal areas face the very real threat of submergence. Some can easily cease to exist. Nationals from such places migrate inland/elsewhere and will as a matter of fact face conflict if there’s no sufficient framework - social, economic and legal - to accommodate them.

Another possible insecurity outcome is climate terrorism. This comes from radicals who misunderstand climate deliberations and choose violence as a way of making their point. People who experience considerable loss and damage with far reaching social and economic effects as a result of climate change; and who don’t see sufficient redress, can harbor anger at big polluters.

This is an area whose evolution remains to be seen.

Glacier retreat and melting of Arctic ice is imperiling radar bases used to give early warnings and disseminate information quickly.

The structural integrity of these areas is in direct danger from permafrost thaw and melting ice.

Also, as the Arctic loses ice mass (causing sea level rise) not only does it endanger polar ecosystems and wildlife like penguins and polar bears, but it also opens up an economic pathway: new shipping routes.

Basically, the ice melting is revealing new shorter routes for global maritime trade. Not only so, but it is giving access to previously impossible to exploit resources such as minerals and ironically, oil and gas. The Arctic is largely unclaimed land.

This will lead to increased competition for these resources between different stakeholder countries and even underhanded means to do so.

This is a new security threat.

In the wake of climate disasters, especially extreme events like typhoons, the military is increasingly being deployed as first responders and in emergency situations including search and rescue. Because they have the requisite training and capacity, they are called upon to help civilian authorities in the response. This includes securing critical infrastructure and distributing food and medical supplies.

This however takes away from their original purpose which is defence. It also underscores the need to train manpower and equip the military with resources and capacity to deal with climate change. They have to be thoroughly familiarized with climate change as an emerging security threat.

Energy shortages in times of droughts and heatwaves increase insecurity. All manner of insecurity, like looting, thrives in darkness. Businesses also suffer economic losses from lack of power or high power prices.

In general, water is capable of causing geopolitical tensions and insecurity caused by climate change.

Conversely, water can be a tool for peace building. Promoting harmony and shared responsibility between communities and nations through water can contribute to peace and stability.

However, intense and thorough education both to the public and stakeholders about responsible water management and climate change is a very critical cog in the wheel.

Education and training of security organs on climate change is likewise important. Both water and climate change are a security concern/issue.

Also, data and knowledge gathering, reporting and monitoring is important. It helps in early warning and disaster preparedness.

Likewise, law enforcement should be taught about various types of insecurity like SBGV and human trafficking to curb the menace.

Cooperation and sharing of intelligence between agencies and nations, and financing of researchers and institutions working in this area helps.

Multi-sectoral approaches linking institutions, scholars and scientists, community organizations, uniformed forces, legal sector, wildlife and conservation practitioners,  government and the public is crucial.

Perhaps it is essential to have new academic disciplines focusing on the area of water, security and climate change; and incorporate it to leadership and peacebuilding courses.

Initiatives and institutions can be specifically set to look at water, security and climate change.

Of course, to better mitigate water and security, the most important thing is to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Act on climate.