Wrap Up 2023 - The Year In Climate
The
year 2023 has been a busy one in climate change. Climate effects have continued
being felt worldwide in various forms and their impacts on human society and
economic growth persists. The natural world is also impacted, though wildlife
and ecosystems are unable to speak for themselves. Human dependence on nature
for survival is now directly influenced by climate change.
So,
what happened in 2023?
In
terms of climate policy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a
report showing that low emissions sources will account for majority of growth
in global electricity demand up to 2025 and that the share of renewables will
rise to 35% in 2025.
The
EU parliament banned the sale of new petrol and diesel (fossil fuels) cars in
the bloc from 2035 and set a target of 55% drop from 2021 carbon emission
levels for new vehicles sold from 2030.
In
March, the IPCC released the final synthesis report of the AR6[1].
The document notes that every fraction of warming significantly increases
climate impacts; and that we need to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to
2019. The IPCC is a panel of scientists that produce the science that underpins
international climate policy, that is, COP decisions and multilateral legal
agreements.
In
March the second UN Water conference was held in New York to discuss water.
Undoubtedly, water is set to become the most important issue globally
especially with the advent of climate change.
In
April, G7 ministers agree to increase offshore wind by 150 gigawatts by end of
decade and phase out of unabated fossil fuels to reach net zero by 2050.
The
head of International Organization on Migration (IOM) singles out climate
change as a major driver of migration more than conflict and notes the
interaction between the two.
In
May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) releases the annual to decadal
climate update report stating there’s a 66% probability we’re going to
overshoot 1.5 degrees once in the next 5 years (2023-2027). Though sobering,
reaching this threshold once doesn’t mean it’s a permanent thing.
In
June, the Bonn climate conference took place. This one lays the groundwork for
the bigger conference of parties later on in the year.
It
was also in June that NOAA[2]
issued an update on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - the El Nino part was
here. The El Nino means warmer than usual sea surface temperatures resulting to
heavy rain in some places. It is a natural phenomenon, but with climate change,
it is heightened.
In
the same month, a global climate finance meeting held in Paris concluded
without much in the expected climate finance or a carbon tax for shipping
(maritime). Ships are heavy consumers of carbon heavy fossil fuels though they
are bedrock of international trade.
The
IEA released a report on oil expecting demand to peak in 2028 after which it
falls for ‘combustible fossil fuels’ and in 2026, it starts falling for
transport fuels.
In
July, G20 ministers meeting in Chennai, India failed to reach consensus on
peaking of emissions by 2025, carbon tax or shifting to ‘green’ energy.
It
was also in July that the WMO declared the beginning of the El Nino.
In
August, IRENA[3]
said that the 187 GW of clean energy capacity activated in 2022 cost less than
electricity from dirty (fossil) fuels.
In
September the inaugural Africa climate summit was held which led to the Nairobi
Declaration. The main outcome was to provide a common African position for the
54-country continent ahead of the climate talks in Dubai, UAE later on. The
conclusion highlighted the massive opportunities for green growth and the
benefits of adaptation.
The
WMO released state of Africa climate report for 2022 during the occasion,
showing the continued impacts of climate change on the continent and outlining
the requirements needed to mitigate and adapt.
 |
| A happy African woman. Photo: Adisam/Iwaria |
The
UNFCCC[4]
released the much awaited technical report on the global stocktake (GST). The
report details comprehensively where we are in climate action and what needs to
be done. It assesses the state of climate action globally. It was a part of the
Paris agreement and is supposed to take place in five year cycles, the first
one being 2023. It sets the new foundation for ambition for new climate plans
(NDCs[5]),
and is the basis for ratcheting up of ambition.
The
findings are that we are behind in mitigation and adaptation. There is however
increased uptake of renewables, electric vehicles and climate responsible
legislation. More ambition is required to cut emissions and clean energy needs
to be up scaled. Adaptation, technology and technical support all need to be
increased vastly way more. Climate finance, especially to developing countries
needs to be increased to support low carbon growth and development.
In
October, 200 health journals called on WHO[6] to
recognize ‘biodiversity and climate change as one indivisible crisis’ and act
on it as ‘a global health emergency.’ It is true because climate change affects
biodiversity very much and in order to preserve the variety of diverse wild
animals and plants, one really has to consider the interaction of climate and
natural ecosystems.
Most
importantly, the IEA released the world outlook report showing that growth and
momentum for renewables is sufficient (enough) for fossil fuels demand to reach
a high point (peak) ahead of 2030.
Soon
afterwards, in November, UN Climate Change released a synthesis report of all
NDCs deposited in its registry. The report showed emissions are way above
required action to keep temperatures below 1.5 or 2 degrees. There’s a ‘rapidly
narrowing window’ to increase ambition and implement already decided upon
action, showcased in the NDCs.
It
said that of the 195 NDCs analyzed there’ll be 8.8% increase in emissions ‘compared
to 2010 levels.’ By 2030, emissions will be lowered by 2% compared to 2019
levels and peaking will take place by 2030.
UN
Environment Program (UNEP) released the emissions gap report, the 14th
in a series, showing that when all unconditional NDCs are effected, there’ll be
a temperature rise of 2.9 degrees above preindustrial levels while conditional
NDCs show a 2.5 degrees rise.
By
2030, expected (predicted) emissions must fall by 28% in order to keep within
1.5 and 42% to remain below 2 degrees. Today’s policies however show a temperature
rise of 3 degrees.
In
short, we are basically way off track.
In
December, UNEP released another report on cooling showing that this sector will
result to more than 10% of global emissions by 2050. Electricity demand for
cooling will be more than twice current rates by half century.
Starting 30th November, COP28 kicked off in Dubai in the United Arab
Emirates. Some of the positive outcomes were the operationalization of the long
agitated for loss and damage fund. The GST report was accepted (acknowledged). The
global goal on adaptation (GGA) finally has targets and a framework, making it
possible to actualize in reality, not just on paper. The text mentioned phasing
out of fossil fuels and transitioning away from the same.
In
terms of climate events, Copernicus Institute reported January 2023 as 0.25
degrees warmer than 1991-2023 average and the joint 7th warmest
tying with 2018 and 2021.
Europe
was hit by heat waves, experiencing higher than normal temperatures in various
places. In the month of June, Mt. Fluchthorn in Switzerland lost height due to
permafrost thaw and this resulted to a landslide.
In
Africa, the horn of Africa countries were recovering from the worst drought in
40 years, accentuated by a strong La Nina. In the short rains season of
October- December, the El Nino hit and with it intense heavy rains and massive
flooding. Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania were inundated with rain which caused
loss of life and property, including death of livestock and displacements.
The
previous drought had dried out the soil so much that it was unable to absorb
the rain water and instead was washed away. The lack of vegetation to hold
together soil and increase water percolation and infiltration contributed to
the situation.
The
two extremes, coming back to back, made more difficult recovery efforts as
communities struggled to navigate the situation aggravated by climate change.
Some areas were further hit by landslides because of loose soil.
Northern
and Southern Africa experienced strong heat waves and extreme heat with Algeria
experiencing wildfires.
Tropical
cyclone Freddy hit Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Malawi, Zimbabwe and
Reunion. The storm which lasted for a record 34 days resulted to 659,000
displaced in Malawi and covered 8,000 kilometers. Some of the countries were
recovering from the previous cyclone Batsirai and the compound effects were
increased.
Storm
Daniel, incoming from the Mediterranean and bringing heavy rainfall hit Libya
causing the overflow of two dams and over 4,345 deaths, some of whom were
washed out to sea. Scientists said the storm was made 50% more likely by
climate change.
The
storm, also affecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria caused US$21.14 billion in
damages.
In
the Pacific islands, tropical storm Lola hot Vanuatu and Solomon Islands
affecting 40,000 households. Some areas were cut off as education, health care
and transport infrastructure was substantially damaged. Farmlands too, bore the
brunt of the heavy storm as crops were damaged.
In
Asia, the typhoons Mawar and Bolaren in the western Pacific Ocean were the most
intense. Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in Philippines, Taiwan and China causing
over US$15.7 billion dollars in damage. In China especially, 880,000 people in
Fujian province experienced the impacts of this typhoon, being displaced.
Notably,
all seven major basins globally each experienced a category 5 storm, which is
the first time this happens.
In
Australia, 2023 had the hottest winter since 1910 (beginning of records). In
fact, every winter since 2012 was warmer than the 1961-1990 mean (30 years). This
has been made likely because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions resulting
to climate change. The widespread heatwaves caused extreme heat, with Sydney at
almost 40 degrees.
In
North America, 129,478 hectares of and were affected by wildfires in California,
resulting to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and particulate matter. In
fact, in general, Copernicus reported that 410 megatonnes of emissions were released
by wildfires in 2023.
Canada
was badly hit by wildfires to an extent that effects were felt far far away. 42
million hectares burned, which is twice the previous record. The air quality
over the larger North America was so bad, the skies turned orange in distant
New York City. Safety precautions and health warnings had to be issued, and over
100 million people were affected.
Dry
and hot conditions, which are ideal for fire weather, are more and more likely
because of climate change.
Russia
was hit by boreal forest fires, as was Spain, Greece, Portugal and Maui in
Hawaii.
In
South America, the Panama Canal lost water volume because of drought forcing administrators
to restrict number of vessels and quantity of cargo carried. The El Nino and
climate change brought extreme heat, flooding and rain over diverse areas of
the continent. Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay were hit by a
strong heatwave affecting human populations and destroying croplands. Chile
experienced wildfires early in the year.
Extreme
heat in winter has been made more likely by human-caused climate change.
In
the Arctic, increased phytoplankton blooms were observed. The Greenland ice
sheet continued to lose mass because of warming. The Arctic is warming at twice
the rate globally. The trajectory now points to a wetter Arctic, with 2023 the
6th rainiest Pan-Arctic, as NOAA reported. The mean surface air temperature
is the 6th highest since 1900, and this was the 17th year
on record for decreasing sea ice.
Salmon
species were affected differently, with some increasing and others declining,
because of the changing climate. Of course there are repercussions on the
dependent fisheries, food security and economy sectors.
Permafrost
thaw continued, with valid concerns on the release of previously trapped
methane and consequences on climate change. Methane is a greenhouse gas and a
climate warmer.
In
general, 2023 is the 6th warmest year on record for the Arctic.
Globally,
February was the 4th, March the 2nd, April the 4th
and May the 3rd warmest in 174 years according to NOAA. August was the second warmest and September
2023 the warmest ever according to Copernicus Institute.
October,
June, July and November 2023 broke records as the warmest ever.
Both
NOAA and Copernicus agree that 2023 is set to the hottest year ever recorded in
history.
[1] Sixth Assessment Report
[2] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency
[3] International Renewable Energy Association
[4] UN Climate Change
[5] Nationally Determined Contributions (climate plans).
[6] World Health Organization
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